According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, yields on long-term US Treasury bonds remained high, and the Treasury's expanded repurchase operations of long-term US Treasury bonds had limited effect. Repurchases primarily improve market liquidity but are unlikely to change the core pricing of long-term interest rates. The true determinants of yields remain the fiscal deficit, inflation, Treasury bond supply, and global capital allocation. Given the continued increase in long-term funding demand driven by US financing needs and AI capital expenditures, the market-demanded term premium is likely to remain high.

The pressure on US Treasury bonds is also linked to risks in the global bond market and energy sector. Japanese long-term bond yields are already high; further increases could incentivize Japanese capital to flow back to Japan, putting additional selling pressure on US Treasuries. Meanwhile, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz, Russian refineries, and Red Sea shipping could push up costs for refined oil products, insurance, and transportation, increasing uncertainty surrounding global inflation. Further expansion of secondary sanctions against Iran by the US could also further increase energy and trade costs.

Therefore, the Jackson Hole symposium will be a crucial observation window. The market needs to focus more on how Warsh views inflation, long-term interest rates, and balance sheet policy, rather than simply waiting for signals of interest rate cuts. For the crypto market, long-term US Treasury yields are a key benchmark for dollar funding costs; if yields remain high due to fiscal policy, inflation, and global competition for funds, this will continue to compress the valuation space of highly volatile assets. In other words, before there is a substantial improvement in deficits, inflation, and financing demand, US Treasury repurchase agreements are more of a tool to alleviate pressure than a fundamental solution to reverse the trend of long-term interest rates.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, HTX market data showed that Bitcoin fell below $80,000, with its 24-hour gain narrowing to 3.38%.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, CryptoQuant analyst Moreno stated that the Bitcoin "new whale" group realized profits exceeding $1.2 billion in the past three days, marking the largest profit-taking event in the group's history. The single-day profit on August 20th was approximately $614 million, setting a new record for the highest single-day profit. Simultaneously, the Bitcoin price returned above the short-term whale's realized price of approximately $68,900, with BTC trading near $77,700 on August 23rd, about 12.8% higher than the "new whales'" total cost basis. Previously, some whales who had recently accumulated Bitcoin had been experiencing long-term unrealized losses; this rebound has completely altered their portfolio structure, suddenly providing them with the opportunity to exit at the break-even point and lock in substantial profits.

The current price action therefore constitutes a crucial demand test. If BTC can sustain its position above the whale cost base of approximately $70,000, while profit-taking gradually returns to normal levels, it indicates that new demand is effectively absorbing the distribution pressure, and the rebound has a basis for continuation. Conversely, if profits remain high and the price falls back below this cost base, this rebound may be closer to a "break-even exit," with previously trapped holders becoming selling pressure again. The market has recovered its profitability; now it needs to prove whether it can absorb the pressure created by this profit-taking.