2.2 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Bear Market Bottom Prediction
With Bitcoin's price action reaching this point, today's article will discuss the potential bottom of the bear market. Previous articles have predicted entry points, and we'll revisit this in the context of the time cycle. Let's start with the current price. There's a consensus in the market to buy around 75,000, which is also near the cost basis of our micro-strategy. This is the low point from April 2025, after which the market entered the latter half of a bull market, driven by continuous institutional buying. Therefore, it's a worthwhile entry point, and as mentioned above, holding and observing is advisable. The price held by major ETF institutions is certainly lower than the current level, so the current price is not the bottom of the bear market, but rather a key support area in this phase. Let's estimate the pullback from historical bull-to-bear market cycles. The first pullback was around 2011, with a 94% retracement. This time, we can ignore it because it's the earliest stage with poor liquidity and limited participants. The second was around 2013, with an 87% retracement. The third was around 2017, with an 84% retracement. The fourth was around 2021, with a 77% retracement. And the fifth is around 2025—what about the retracement then? The retracement levels are becoming shallower due to stronger market consensus, the entry of institutions, and factors such as accumulation costs and miner costs after each halving. Based on historically shallower retracements, we speculate that a 70% retracement would bring the price to around 38,000, and a 60% retracement would bring it to around 50,500. However, my view is more optimistic, maintaining my previous estimates of around 63,000 and 52,000.