This issue provides a comprehensive analysis of BTC from short-term to long-term perspectives, taking into account both sentiment and funding factors.
Technical Structure: On the evening of December 26th, BTC quickly dropped from 89000 to 86600 before entering a low-level consolidation phase. It rebounded to above 87300, but volume was weak, indicating insufficient buying pressure. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment and converging, the MACD histogram has turned positive, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating weakening downward momentum but not yet strengthening. The daily chart remains in a downward channel, with moving averages suppressing the price. The daily MACD histogram has turned positive and expanded, forming a potential bullish divergence, suggesting weakening downward momentum and a potential technical rebound window. Key price levels: Support 86600, 85500–84500; Resistance 87500–87700, 88000–88200, with strong resistance above 89000.
Sentiment and Funding: The Fear & Greed Index is at "Extreme Fear," serving as a contrarian indicator. BTC market share remains high, while USDT market capitalization has slightly declined, with funds only tentatively flowing back in. Whales have made large transfers, but the direction is unclear, requiring caution. Overall Assessment: Short-term consolidation and correction, medium-term bearish, and long-term downward momentum weakening. Strategy: Aggressive long positions can be initiated with small positions at 86800-87000 if volume increases and stabilization occurs; conservative short positions can be attempted with small positions at 87700-88000 if resistance is encountered. Take Profit: Long at 87700/88400, Short at 86800/85500; Stop Loss: Long below 86500, Short below 88200.
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BTC saw a rapid rise in the early morning session on December 26th, but remains within a critical consolidation window. On the daily chart, the price is still consolidating at a low level after the decline, trading below the previous rebound high, and has not yet formed a valid reversal. The moving average system is bearish, with the MA30 and MA60 providing downward pressure, suggesting the current rebound is more of a technical correction. On the 4-hour chart, the lows are slowly rising, but multiple attempts to break through the 92,000-93,000 area have been met with resistance, indicating significant selling pressure and trapped positions above. Trading volume has not increased significantly, suggesting insufficient trend continuity.
In terms of indicators, the daily RSI is between 45 and 50, indicating a neutral to slightly weak bias; the MACD shows signs of a low-level golden cross, but the momentum is limited. The 4-hour RSI rose and then fell back, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is generally weak, and the overall market remains biased towards a range-bound trend.
At key price levels, support is seen at 86,900; a break below this level could lead to a retest of 81,000. Key resistance remains at 92,000–93,000. The news flow is relatively light, with the holiday causing reduced liquidity. Funding rates are slightly positive, but sentiment is not extreme. Trading should focus on light, short-term positions, patiently waiting for increased volume and directional confirmation.
Trading Recommendations: Currently, BTC is still mainly trading within a range. If you choose to trade, try a small, short-term strategy. For larger positions, it's advisable to wait for increased volume and news catalysts before confirming the direction. Patience is key to finding your own wave of market movement. I've recently been using KTX; it has low slippage and fast response. Registration link: https://www.ktx.com/zh/login/register?invite_code=0F2mBc