Bitcoin saw a modest rebound over the weekend and continues to trade on higher levels.
The current market is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical benefits (US-Iran negotiations) and macroeconomic headwinds (hawkish Fed stance). On-chain data presents a divergent pattern of "intensified hoarding and inflated trading"—long-term holders' reluctance to sell is a medium-term positive, but the activity is mainly driven by protocol-level microtransactions, the quality of which is questionable. Next week's focus: substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations, whether ETF fund flows continue to recover, and whether BTC can hold the 60k-63k support range. Without a clear catalyst, the range-bound trading pattern is likely to continue. The weekend's rebound was entirely driven by the US-Iran negotiations; these two are pulling back and forth, reaping market profits. In fact, the volatility for Bitcoin wasn't significant, only a 2000-point fluctuation. The impact on ETH was even smaller, less than 100 points. Overall, liquidity in the target cryptocurrency market is extremely poor, for many reasons, but the main factor is the change in financial dynamics. Funds are flowing into US stocks, gold, crude oil, and options. Secondly, the Fed will not cut interest rates in the short term to curb inflation. Again, the prerequisite for a bull market in the cryptocurrency market is a loosening of the US dollar; there is no other way. There's no such thing as a bull market without a reason. Those trading spot shouldn't fantasize about short-term profits. Also, stay away from altcoins; that era is over, and the days of unchecked growth are over. Just look at Trump-related coins—they essentially died within months, wiping out most investors. Returning to futures, Bitcoin is currently around 64,200; continue shorting with a stop-loss at 65,000 and a target of 62,000. Short ETH as well. In short, my view remains: sell on rallies. Let's discuss trading strategies together; see my profile for details. We can discuss cryptocurrencies or other products. Exchanges offer a wide variety of products now, especially US stocks, which are quite good. We'll also select a few good ones to share in the group.