CPI Data Release Analysis and Probability Strategy
Scenario 1 (Below Expectations ≤ 3.2%, 25% probability): Inflation cools down more than expected, coupled with a 23,000 contraction in July's non-farm payrolls, significantly weakening expectations of interest rate hikes. The US dollar and US Treasuries come under pressure, and funds flow into risk assets. BTC stabilizes above 65,000, targeting 65,700-66,000; ETH moves in tandem, with resistance at 1,920-1,940. Scenario 2 (Above Expectations ≥ 3.6%, 20% probability): A rebound in inflation triggers tightening concerns, increasing expectations of interest rate hikes. The US dollar strengthens, leading to a sell-off in risk assets. BTC breaks below 63,300 support, retracing to 62,200; if ETH breaks 1,850, it targets 1,820. Scenario 3 (In line with Expectations, around 3.4%, 55% probability): Data aligns with consensus. The market maintains a range-bound movement between 63,500 and 64,900, with limited volatility, awaiting subsequent PPI and retail data. The probability is slightly lower according to Goldman Sachs and the Cleveland Fed's forecasts, but the rebound in oil prices poses an upside risk; mainstream surveys are highly concentrated at 3.4%; the Calci market indicates a probability higher than 3.4% is only 15%, consistent with the above distribution. Our internal community will provide precise entry points in advance. To follow our trades, please check my profile QQ; there are no barriers to entry.
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