Chu Yuechen: Bitcoin (ETH) Market Analysis and Trading Reference (June 25th)
Chu Yuechen: Bitcoin (ETH) Market Analysis and Trading Reference for June 25th. The current decline is a concentrated release of multiple structural negative factors: macroeconomic factors (interest rate hike expectations + strengthening US dollar), capital flows (continuous outflows from ETFs + retail investor exit), and microeconomic factors (pressure on the largest buyer's financing model), forming a triple suppression. Today's focus: US May PCE data release (core PCE expected to be 3.4% year-on-year). If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will further increase, and BTC may test the $55K-$57K range. We have been telling everyone for the past two days that the downtrend is not over. Whether from a technical, economic, or on-chain data perspective, cryptocurrencies do not have the conditions for a bull market. The short-term rebound brought about by the US-Iran negotiation agreement is brief and limited. When the noise fades, we must return to the essence. I have always emphasized that the core condition for cryptocurrencies to return to a bull market is for the Federal Reserve to stop its hawkish attitude and for the US dollar to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy. Other factors have limited impact, or rather, if this condition is not met, even if there is a rebound, it will be strictly limited to below $80,000. Okay, back to the current market. Last night, it fell to around 59,000 again before rebounding, a gain of about 2,000 points so far, which is not bad. However, the downtrend is not over yet, and I think the low of 59,000 will still be broken. Therefore, our strategy is to continue shorting around 61,000, with a stop loss at 62,000 and a target of 59,000. If it breaks below, follow up with short positions, targeting 57,000-55,000. ETH is also in a short position, with an initial target around 1500. Market conditions are constantly changing, and we can communicate in our group. There may be a delay in the article's publication; please use stop losses when trading, and bear your own risk. I will provide timely alerts for those who follow my trades. Please check my profile for more information.