According to BlockBeats, on September 4th, based on HTX market data, ZEC broke through $1000, setting a new all-time high. It is currently priced at $1017, a more than 23% increase in the last 24 hours.

According to BlockBeats, the US August non-farm payrolls report will be released on September 4th. The market expects approximately 56,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%. However, given the recent cooling of employment data, the real factor influencing the Federal Reserve's September policy decision is not simply the increase in employment, but whether the labor market has experienced a significant deterioration sufficient to alter its inflation forecast. Bank of America believes that unless the non-farm payrolls figure is significantly lower than expected, the employment data may not be enough to change the pricing of an interest rate hike; the CPI data released on September 11th will remain the more crucial policy basis.

The US labor market is currently characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs." ADP's August private sector employment increased by only 38,000, indicating weak hiring intentions from businesses. However, initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate have not yet deteriorated out of control. This means that even if non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, the Federal Reserve may interpret it as an economic slowdown rather than a recession signal. More importantly, if labor supply itself contracts, a decline in job growth does not necessarily mean a simultaneous collapse in business demand. Instead, it may allow wages and inflation to maintain a certain resilience. This is why a weak non-farm payroll report may not be enough to overturn current expectations of interest rate hikes.

What the market really needs to focus on is how interest rate expectations will be further transmitted through the US dollar and global capital flows. Recently, expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike have intensified, causing the yen to rebound rapidly, with the USD/JPY pair approaching the 155 mark. A large number of yen short positions and carry trades are facing pressure to be closed out. If the yen continues to appreciate, the compression of carry trades, in turn, will further push up the yen, creating a self-reinforcing capital flow. This means that the market risk in September comes not only from US interest rates but also from the potential reallocation of global funds triggered by the normalization of Japanese monetary policy.

Therefore, the core contradictions in September are becoming clearer: the US job market is cooling, but inflation may still limit the Fed's policy easing; Japan, on the other hand, may push the yen stronger through interest rate hikes, further compressing global arbitrage funds. In this environment, if tonight's non-farm payrolls are only mildly weak, the market may find it difficult to escape the constraints of high interest rates based solely on employment data; instead, it will need to wait for the CPI to confirm whether inflation has truly cooled. However, if the yen further breaks through 155 and triggers larger-scale short covering, it could form a second chain of volatility transmission through foreign exchange, bonds, and risk assets. For global assets, what really needs to be observed is not the non-farm payrolls figure itself, but how US and Japanese monetary policies will jointly change dollar liquidity and global funding costs.

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