According to BlockBeats, on July 28th, Bitget data showed that both WTI and Brent crude oil prices continued to decline. WTI crude oil fell below $80 per barrel, a daily drop of 1.43%. Brent crude oil fell more than 1% during the day, currently trading at $84.43 per barrel.

According to a Bloomberg report on July 28th, following reports that Nvidia was moving forward with a deal worth over $750 billion for AI infrastructure, the cost of protecting its debt from default saw its largest single-day increase on record on Monday. Data from ICE Data Services showed that Nvidia's 5-year CDS price rose by approximately 14 basis points at one point, reaching a high of about 82 basis points per annum, indicating that the credit market is beginning to repric its potential guarantee and financing obligations.

Credit default swaps (CDS) can be simply understood as a form of "debt default insurance": investors periodically pay a fee in exchange for protection against default by the debtor. Therefore, a higher CDS price generally indicates that the market perceives the related company as having higher debt risk, or that investors are more cautious about its debt repayment prospects. For example, the rise in Nvidia's 5-year CDS suggests that some funds are beginning to pay higher protection costs for its potential future debt pressures or guarantee obligations, reflecting growing market concern about the financing risks behind massive AI transactions.

In terms of news, Nvidia is reportedly discussing providing guarantees of up to $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing power from US data center projects; meanwhile, the company disclosed last Friday that its cooperation with SK Group, the parent company of South Korea's SK Hynix, exceeds $500 billion. The market's focus is on the fact that while AI computing power demand remains strong, as chip suppliers begin to finance or endorse customers, investor concerns are rising regarding the quality of demand, balance sheet risks, and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures.

The market has already reacted. On July 27th, Eastern Time, Nvidia closed down about 5%, dragging the Nasdaq down 0.2%; the S&P 500 was basically flat, and the Dow Jones rose 0.5%. Ahead of the big tech earnings week and the Fed's interest rate decision, the focus of AI trading is shifting from "how fast is the growth" to "who will foot the bill for this growth."

Macro analyst Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital, stated that the rise in CDS indicates a growing market awareness of default risks associated with Nvidia and the entire AI industry chain (including Oracle, AMD, Broadcom, etc.). This reflects credit investors' cautious attitude towards large-scale AI capital expenditures and potential leverage, a risk signal that has not yet been fully digested by the optimistic stock market. He even bluntly stated that the credit market is already warning of the questionable sustainability of the AI investment cycle, while stock investors seem oblivious.

Fu Peng, a well-known Chinese macroeconomist, said that when the market was full of confidence a few years ago, spending money (declining free cash flow) meant seizing the future, but now the more money is burned, the more worries there are. When the market was full of confidence a few years ago, the more tightly bound the "left hand to right hand" method brought about, the more people believed that the scale would expand rapidly. But now, the more tightly bound the market is, the more it begins to mean that in the future, it may lead to disaster and affect all ships.