According to BlockBeats, on August 28th, QCP Capital released its latest market analysis, stating that BTC remained around $80,000 ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank conference. Market focus was not only on Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's policy stance, but also on how the Fed would balance persistent inflationary pressures with the financial environment, especially the new pressures facing the long-term yield curve of US Treasury bonds.

The QCP noted that the U.S. Treasury previously announced it would expand its liquidity support repurchase program for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds starting September 9, raising the maximum amount per operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Following the announcement, long-term Treasury yields initially declined, the dollar weakened, and gold and Bitcoin rose in tandem. However, the Treasury emphasized that the plan aimed to improve liquidity in the long-term nominal bond market and was not an intervention targeting yield levels. Inflation remains a significant constraint for the Federal Reserve. Data shows that the overall U.S. PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year in July; core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and remained at 3.3% year-over-year. The QCP stated that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, making the September policy decision uncertain.

Risk assets are currently supported by the AI investment cycle. Nvidia's latest earnings report shows quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion, a year-over-year increase of 117%. The company expects next quarter revenue of approximately $108 billion, higher than previous market expectations. Nvidia's stock price subsequently rose by approximately 8.7%, driving a general rise in technology stocks.

In the crypto market, BTC has risen from approximately $63,500 last week to approximately $80,000, briefly surpassing $81,000. The US spot BTC ETF has recorded inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $2.8 billion, providing spot demand support for this rally. It's worth noting that this rally has not been accompanied by a rapid increase in leverage. BTC futures open interest has decreased from approximately 646,000 BTC in mid-August to approximately 588,000 BTC, and funding rates have remained at a low level. QCP believes this indicates that the rally is driven more by short covering and spot buying than by a large influx of leveraged longs. Currently, BTC is approaching the $81,000 to $86,000 range, with approximately $83,300 being a key market focus. QCP states that the key is not just whether BTC can break through this area, but whether the subsequent rise will continue to be driven by spot demand or shift to leveraged funds.

QCP stated that Warsh will deliver the opening remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, and the market will focus on how he explains the impact of inflation targets, financial conditions, and changes in long-term interest rates on the monetary policy framework.

According to BlockBeats, on August 28th, the Strait of Hormuz has been Iran's most powerful bargaining chip since the outbreak of war at the end of February. However, US officials stated that over the past two months, the US military has gradually weakened Iran's control over this crucial waterway.

U.S. officials say the U.S. military has turned the tide in the Strait of Hormuz and believes this could be a turning point in the war, not only easing global economic tensions but also potentially leading to a better agreement with Iran. U.S. President Trump said in a phone interview with Axios on Thursday, “It’s open there (the Strait of Hormuz), and Iran’s response has been very mild. They don’t want us to do anything to them again. That’s the whole point. Nothing else matters.”

Following the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum, the US military reportedly began unilateral actions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This action included several aspects: a US-UAE joint task force began guiding ships through the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, providing air cover, and intercepting Iranian drone and cruise missile attacks. A two-week US bombing campaign significantly weakened the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's ability to attack ships passing through the strait. A minesweeping operation utilized Navy divers, SEALs, underwater and surface drones, and private contractors to detect and clear mines. The blockade of Iranian ports was reinstated. (Jinshi)