According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 32.5%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged by October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 6.8%. (Jinshi)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Friday granted preliminary conditional approval to World Liberty Trust Company, National Association, bringing Trump-backed World Liberty Financial one step closer to obtaining a national trust banking license. In its letter, the OCC stated that World Liberty's license application met some regulatory and policy requirements, hence the preliminary conditional approval. However, this does not constitute final approval, and the OCC can still withdraw it. World Liberty Financial established a new trust company earlier this year with the aim of applying for a banking license from the OCC. The company previously stated that the license would support its provision of services such as stablecoin issuance and redemption, fiat currency deposits and withdrawals, custody, and exchange. WLF currently issues the stablecoin USD1, with a market capitalization of approximately $4 billion, making it the fourth largest stablecoin after Tether and USDC. WLF CEO Zack Witkoff stated on the X platform on Friday that the company aims to create "the world's most trusted and widely used digital dollar," while strengthening the dollar's role in the global economy. Zack Witkoff is the son of Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Overall, the approval may further strengthen WLF’s position in the US stablecoin and digital asset banking infrastructure, but its political ties may continue to raise regulatory and ethical controversies.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Mizuho analysts have lowered their price target for crypto custody company BitGo from $14 to $11, but maintained their "outperform" rating. At the time of the report's release, BitGo's stock price was approximately $5.61. Mizuho believes that while the market generally views the delay of the Clarity Act, the US crypto market structure bill, as a negative, it may actually be an advantage for BitGo. This is because BitGo already operates the first publicly traded, federally chartered digital asset trust bank, and its regulatory status does not depend on the passage of the new bill. Analysts point out that the Clarity Act aims to establish a framework for the US digital asset market structure and clarify the division of power among different regulatory agencies. However, due to repeated negotiations on key issues, the bill has been continuously delayed. In Mizuho's view, every additional quarter of uncertainty surrounding the regulatory framework will further accumulate BitGo's existing licenses and first-mover advantage in compliance, raising the barrier to entry for new entrants. In other words, the later the regulations are implemented, the more "trustworthy and licensed" will become BitGo's core competitive advantage.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, in an interview with The Block, responded to ongoing criticism following KPMG US's completion of its first full financial audit. He stated that some critics are unable to admit their past assessments of Tether were wrong, adding, "Frankly, I don't care." Ardoino emphasized that Tether has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience. He cited a 2022 instance where Tether processed $7 billion in redemptions within 48 hours, equivalent to approximately 10% of its reserves at the time, without any suspension of redemptions. He believes many traditional financial institutions would struggle to handle similar withdrawal volumes in such a short time. He also stated that criticism itself is not a bad thing, as it makes Tether better and stronger. Even if some critics view him as a "villain," he is unconcerned as long as Tether continues to serve its 650 million users who claim to rely on USDT, especially those in emerging markets. According to sources, Tether, as a private company, does not publicly share its audited financial statements. The company plans to conduct a full audit annually and continue to publish quarterly assurance reports. Overall, the KPMG audit is an important step for Tether to improve transparency, but controversies surrounding its reserves, level of disclosure, and systemic impact have not completely subsided. (The Block)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the French Finance Minister confirmed that hackers breached the French Directorate General of Public Finances' system in late June, stealing data on individual and corporate taxpayers. According to FrenchBreaches, a platform that tracks cyberattacks in France, the incident affected approximately 678,437 people, equivalent to about 1% of the French population, but the exact number is still under investigation and has not yet been confirmed. The leaked data reportedly includes sensitive information such as names, dates of birth, home addresses, phone numbers, email addresses, tax identification information, and income data. Nearly 27,000 people have tax incomes of at least €100,000, 386 have incomes exceeding €1 million, and another 8 have incomes exceeding €10 million. The report states that the database is being sold on the dark web for thousands of euros. The attackers, calling themselves ZeroBytes, claimed they extracted the records using internal search tools before being discovered and having their access cut off. This incident has raised concerns within the crypto industry, as violent robberies targeting crypto holders via "wrench attacks" have increased significantly in France in recent years. The leakage of high-income individuals' addresses and contact information could provide criminals with more precise target lists.