According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, amidst the continued surge in storage demand driven by AI data center construction, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings to ¥116,000 and maintained its buy rating. The bank believes that the supply and demand tension in the NAND market is tighter than previously anticipated, and the price increase cycle may continue until mid-2027, and even into 2028 in some segments.

In a report dated June 30, Goldman Sachs stated that it has raised its operating profit forecasts for Kioxia for FY3/27 to FY3/29 by 9%, 19%, and 29%, respectively, and its EPS forecasts by 10%, 19%, and 29%, respectively. The bank expects the average selling price of NAND flash memory to rise sharply in 2026, and continue to grow by 38% in 2027, higher than its previous forecast of 27%. The report also noted that channel research in Japan indicates that major memory manufacturers are still prioritizing capital expenditure on DRAM rather than significantly increasing new NAND capacity; given the expanding demand for AI, the new NAND supply increase may not be significantly realized until 2028.

This has brought Kioxia back into the investors' spotlight. In the past few cycles, the NAND market has been viewed as a more cyclical and easily oversupplied storage sector due to the larger number of participants compared to the DRAM and HDD industries. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the profit peak of this upward cycle may be higher than previously assumed and could last longer. The reasons behind this include rising demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, substitution demand due to tight HDD supply, and the potential impact of US export controls on equipment supply to some South Korean manufacturers' factories in China.

Kioxia's management has recently signaled a greater emphasis on price and profit margins. Goldman Sachs stated that the company is not in a hurry to lock in shipments through long-term agreements, but rather focuses on price discipline and gross margin levels. Since price negotiations for some of the first-quarter Bitcoin shipments were not yet completed when the company issued its guidance, Goldman Sachs expects Kioxia's operating profit for the first quarter of FY3/27, to be announced on July 31, to reach 1.417 trillion yen, higher than the company's guidance of 1.298 trillion yen and Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.36 trillion yen.

Goldman Sachs focuses on two key aspects of its investment strategy. First, Kioxia is the world's third-largest NAND flash memory manufacturer, possessing relatively strong cost competitiveness. Second, the company is gradually developing products for data centers, which are expected to be the fastest-growing segment of the NAND market. With increasing demand for high-performance storage from AI servers and enterprise-grade SSDs, Kioxia has the opportunity to achieve higher profit margins during periods of rising prices.

However, Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the cyclical nature of the NAND industry has not disappeared. Risks include a slowdown in AI investment, the rise of Chinese NAND manufacturers, declining profit margins due to rising costs or fluctuations in capacity utilization, a significant appreciation of the yen, and a slowdown in demand for NAND from non-AI applications. In other words, Goldman Sachs does not believe that the NAND market structure has permanently changed, but rather that this round of AI-driven supply-demand mismatch has pushed the cycle peak to a higher level than before.

According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, Hyperinsight monitoring shows that the crude oil market is currently digesting the sharp drop in the second quarter while being disrupted by supply risks caused by Iran's refusal to hold direct talks with the United States. WTICRUDE (WTI crude oil) on the Hyperliquid platform is currently trading at approximately $69.70, down another 1.3% in the last 24 hours, with an on-chain trading volume of approximately $72.68 million and open interest of approximately $163 million.

The largest long position holder in WTI crude oil futures (0x007d) is nearing liquidation. Currently holding a 20x leveraged long position in WTIOIL, with a size of approximately $12.57 million, an average entry price of $87.59, and a liquidation price of $68.56, only about $1.13 below the current price. The unrealized loss is approximately $3.23 million, corresponding to a loss of up to 413% of the principal.

The long position now on the verge of liquidation was once one of the biggest winners in this round of war-related market movements. The address opened a long position on April 2, when the United States continued to implement the "maximum pressure" policy, constantly introducing new sanctions on Iranian oil exports and related transportation networks. Geopolitical risk premiums drove oil prices up all the way, reaching a high of $114 on April 4. The long position made a significant profit at that time.

Since May, oil prices have plummeted, and this whale (investor) remained in the market, allowing its profits to evaporate and ultimately owing four times its initial investment. Furthermore, this address repeatedly traded SPCX and SILVER in the past month.

Looking at the on-chain trading data, large holders of WTI crude oil positions are clearly bearish overall. Currently, the nominal size of short positions in the millions of dollars is approximately $61.46 million, which is 2.32 times that of long positions ($26.46 million). The average entry price for long positions is approximately $84.27, and all of their positions are now underwater. This former wartime winner is now mired in the quagmire along with the long camp.

According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, Citigroup lowered its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, reducing its target price for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 and its target price for Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240.

Citigroup stated that weakening investor interest, reduced ETF inflows, and a lack of progress in US digital asset legislation have all negatively impacted the cryptocurrency outlook. This adjustment stems from its decision to lower its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption from $10 billion to zero. Citigroup also noted that slow progress in US cryptocurrency legislation and concerns about potential Bitcoin sales by digital asset management companies have dampened investor sentiment, a weakness coinciding with a shift of funds towards artificial intelligence-related assets.

According to BlockBeats, sources revealed on July 1 that US and Iranian officials will hold indirect talks that day in Doha, the capital of Qatar. (Xinhua)