According to BlockBeats, on July 4th, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of current short-term Bitcoin holdings (held for less than one month and less than three months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through this range before the cost trend line gradually converges. However, each attempt to break through triggers some weaker holders to cash out when unrealized losses turn into profits. This cycle of "breakout—resistance—pullback—breakout again" is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus.

Analysts have divided the expected rebound into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost basis logic, while $70,000 represents the short-term holders' realized price (STH-RP), which is often considered the ceiling for a bear market rebound. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the sentiment bull-bear dividing line, and every trend reversal begins with the last breakout above this line.

The analyst personally leans towards a "weak rebound," expecting it to reach the $64,000 to $68,000 range. A surprise break above $70,000 would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions would be considered to allow for future adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000; hedging activity near this level will suppress volatility. After a breakout, the next positive Gamma level falls precisely between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming a resistance zone.

According to BlockBeats, on July 4th, US President Trump stated that Iran very much wants to reach an agreement; he also gave Iran a week off to attend Khamenei's funeral.

According to BlockBeats, on July 4th, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Buy" rating on MiniMax with a target price of HK$860. In its report, Goldman Sachs stated that the MiniMax M3 model is priced the same as the M2.7, and through upgrades to the training and inference architecture, its inference efficiency has been improved by more than 2 times, which is sufficient to offset the cost increase brought about by doubling the model parameters. This week, DeepSeek announced that the official version of V4 is scheduled to launch in mid-July, and will simultaneously launch a time-based pricing mechanism, with peak-hour call prices being twice the usual price.

Goldman Sachs believes that DeepSeek's price increase indirectly confirms the high cost-performance ratio of the MiniMax M3. The upcoming release of larger versions of the M3 series and the H3 video model are also seen as catalysts for the next phase.