According to BlockBeats, on July 31st, the A-share market opened higher and then fluctuated in the morning session. As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.16%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.04%, the Beijing 50 Index rose 3.4%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose 5.91%.

Changxin C shares briefly surpassed 4 trillion yuan during trading, surging over 14% to 60.49 yuan, setting a new all-time high. Looking at sectors, the memory chip sector opened higher and fluctuated, with several stocks including Lihexing, Juguang Technology, Zhongke Feice, and Nanya New Materials rising over 10%; the robotics concept saw a volatile upward trend, with Zhongda Lide and Fenglong Shares hitting their daily limit; the computing power leasing sector was active, with multiple stocks including Meili Cloud, Yunsai Zhilian, Hongjing Technology, and Litong Electronics hitting their daily limit.

According to BlockBeats, on July 31, the Bank of Japan continued to warn that core inflation could exceed its 2% target and pledged to continue raising borrowing costs based on economic and price trends. The bank also adjusted its assessment of the balance of risks to economic growth, stating that the risks are in equilibrium rather than tilted to the downside.

This suggests that the drag from the Middle East conflict is not as severe as initially feared by authorities, as the growth in global demand for artificial intelligence has acted as a buffer, mitigating the impact. Overall, the Bank of Japan's statements indicate that a continued weakening of the yen could exacerbate inflationary pressures, thus a further interest rate adjustment is expected.

Investors are increasing their expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates before October, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may provide clues to support this view at a press conference this afternoon.

According to BlockBeats, on July 31st, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that global risk assets continued to be under pressure this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made his first attempt to weaken forward guidance, hoping to allow market prices to become a more direct mechanism for economic feedback. However, the market did not interpret the rise in long-term interest rates as a natural tightening of financial conditions, but rather as a resurgence of inflation risks and a decline in the credibility of the Fed's policy. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.2%, the dollar weakened, and US stocks fell, reflecting that investors are beginning to demand a higher risk premium rather than betting on an improvement in economic fundamentals.

The core issue in the market has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "whether the Federal Reserve still has the ability to control inflation." While Warsh stated that tightening financial conditions have partially replaced rate hikes, he has remained ambiguous about the need for further rate increases, leading the market to question the Fed's policy implementation capabilities in a high-inflation environment. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran have pushed up energy prices, further strengthening inflation expectations and increasing the probability of rate hikes in September and December.

For US stocks, continued high long-term interest rates mean that technology growth stocks will continue to face valuation compression pressure. The core logic driving the AI rally in the past was based on low discount rates and high growth expectations, but the continued rise in risk-free interest rates will increase the discount rate for future cash flows, putting downward pressure on highly valued sectors. Therefore, before earnings are realized, AI, semiconductor, and high-beta technology stocks are likely to remain highly volatile.

The crypto market is also affected by macro liquidity. Although mainstream assets such as BTC have not yet experienced systemic risks, tightening dollar liquidity and rising real interest rates typically suppress risk appetite, with funds tending to flow into cash and short-duration assets. If the Federal Reserve ultimately chooses to rebuild policy credibility through interest rate hikes, the crypto market may continue to face valuation pressures in the short term; conversely, once inflation is brought under control again, risk assets may see a new round of liquidity recovery.

Overall, the market's focus is no longer on interest rates themselves, but rather on central bank credibility. In the coming weeks, inflation data, energy prices, and speeches by former FOMC officials in September will be key variables determining the direction of global risk assets.