From ATH to Caution – Profits Taken, Cash Raised Ahead of Volatility

Asset	Positioning	1 6 -May Price	2 3 -May Price	Change	Verdict
BTC	Overweight → Trimmed	$107,800	$110,500	+2.5%	✅ Breakout captured; trimming before weekend risk
ETH	Maintained Overweight → Trimmed	$2,600	$2,660	+2.3%	✅ Strong relative strength preserved gains
SOL	Underweight → Equal Weight	$171	$181	+5.8%	✅ Late-week rally captured; positioning adjusted timely

What We Got Right ✅

➕ Well-Timed Bitcoin Overweight During Breakout
Our 50% BTC allocation ahead of the all-time high breakout allowed us to capture the upside as institutional flows surged. We trimmed exposure on Friday just before signs of weekend weakness emerged, locking in gains at the top.

➕ Altcoin Rebalance Delivered Outperformance
Solana’s late-week rally validated our gradual repositioning from underweight to overweight. ETH also outperformed, rewarding the overweight exposure all week long.

What We Got Wrong ❌

❌ Early Caution Limited Some Upside
We preserved a 20% cash buffer early in the week, anticipating a potential stall near resistance. While the breakout eventually materialized, the extra cash slightly capped our exposure during early momentum.

Key Lessons

? Flow Momentum Drives Price Discovery
ETF inflows near record levels helped propel Bitcoin into ATH territory, and following these patterns closely remains essential for timing exposure.

⏳ Highs Are for Trimming, Not Chasing
Breakouts offer opportunity, but chasing strength into low-volume periods (like weekends) often results in poor entries. Trimming ahead of those windows continues to serve us well.

? Macro Calm Can Create Fragile Setups
Even without major headwinds, lack of institutional presence over weekends still introduces downside risk. Managing exposure proactively remains key.

Final Takeaway

This week demonstrated the strength of our tactical positioning strategy. We leaned into the breakout with a BTC overweight, rotated toward outperforming altcoins, and defensively trimmed into weekend risk. While we kept some cash sidelined early, our strong execution on entries and exits allowed us to match benchmark returns while limiting volatility.

With Bitcoin in price discovery mode and altcoins gaining traction, we remain agile—ready to redeploy if the expected weekend correction offers fresh entry points.

Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.