According to Polymarket's prediction market page, the highest probability option for SpaceX's IPO closing market capitalization is over $2 trillion (approximately 47%), followed by $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion (18%), $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion (13.7%), and $1.4 trillion to $1.6 trillion (7.8%). Bitget launched its IPO Prime service on April 10th, initially supporting stablecoin subscriptions for SpaceX, with a reference valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. In addition, Bitget will distribute two rounds of preSPAX airdrops to VIP members, with the first round of 760 preSPAX tokens to be distributed tomorrow and the second round of 190 preSPAX tokens to be distributed on April 20th.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, recent activity surrounding predictions of Bitcoin's future price has increased significantly, with market expectations showing divergence. In the question, "What price will Bitcoin reach in 2026?", the probability of BTC breaking through $80,000 is approximately 79%, and the probability of it reaching $90,000 is approximately 56%. Meanwhile, the probabilities of it falling to $55,000 and $50,000 are approximately 64% and 51% respectively, indicating that the market is betting on multiple price paths. Currently, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the Alpha page on the platform's homepage, and participating in event predictions using USDT from their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from prediction to trading participation.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the market bets that BTC will reach $80,000 by May 1st this year with a 32% probability, reach $85,000 with an 8% probability, and fall to $65,000 with a 22% probability.

According to Odaily Seer, the outcome of the "NBA Play-In Game Hornets vs. Heat" prediction event on Polymarket has been confirmed: the Hornets won the game, with a total trading volume of approximately $401,300. Accounts that bought positions in the Hornets' winning prediction and have already made over $1 million in profit earned approximately $212,300 in this single game. Odaily Seer previously reported that this account had purchased approximately $500,000 worth of Hornets winning positions, with an average opening price of 68.8¢. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are priced in.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Play-In Game: Trail Blazers vs. Suns" prediction event, an account with over $4 million in profits (address: 0xdb27bf2ac5d428a9c63dbc914611036855a6c56e) purchased $150,000 worth of bets on the Trail Blazers defeating the Suns, with an average opening price of 42¢. The NBA Play-In Game: Trail Blazers vs. Suns will start at 10:00 AM Beijing time today. The winner of this game will face the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser will compete against the winner of the Clippers vs. Warriors game for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Huoxun Finance, cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has signed a definitive agreement with High Roller Technologies to enter the prediction market space by integrating its business. The related event contracts will be offered through CDNA, an exchange registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), targeting U.S. users and competing with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has signed a definitive agreement with High Roller Technologies to enter the prediction market space by integrating its business. The related event contracts will be offered through CDNA, an exchange registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), targeting U.S. users and competing with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. (Cointelegraph)

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Play-In Game Hornets vs. Heat" prediction event, an account with over $1 million in profits (address: 0xb6d6e99d3bfe055874a04279f659f009fd57be17) purchased $500,000 worth of bets on the Hornets defeating the Heat, with an average opening price of 68.8¢. The NBA Play-In Game Hornets vs. Heat will start at 7:30 AM Beijing time today. The loser of this game will be eliminated, while the winner will compete with the loser of the 76ers vs. Magic game for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Huoxun Finance, Polymarket has launched an audit of app startups, promising to help users track suspected insider trading activity. These copy trading apps provide clients with lists of traders with proven track records on the Polymarket platform, or flag unusually large, oddly timed bets—potentially based on confidential information. Clients can use bots to replicate these trades or receive seemingly attractive trade notifications, for which the apps charge a service fee. Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi, have reportedly faced scrutiny regarding insider trading. Last month, Polymarket introduced clearer rules on insider trading and its enforcement.

According to a recent report by Cantor Fitzgerald, as prediction markets rapidly emerge, Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to become major beneficiaries of this sector, leveraging their large retail user base and mature trading infrastructure. While leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain privately held, Robinhood and Coinbase have already begun to penetrate this market by integrating event-driven trading into their apps. Cantor points out that prediction markets allow users to trade contracts around real-world events such as elections and economic data, with prices reflecting group probability judgments. This model is similar to stock and crypto trading platforms, primarily charging fees based on trading activity. Robinhood's prediction market product, launched after the US election, has grown rapidly and become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams. Coinbase, on the other hand, is gradually opening up related features to users by integrating with Kalshi's infrastructure. The report believes that prediction markets not only have retail trading potential but may also play a role in institutional hedging and macroeconomic forecasting in the future. However, regulation remains the biggest uncertainty, as their legal status is currently controversial, falling between derivatives and gambling. (CoinDesk)

According to market sources, Odaily Planet Daily reports that Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh has disclosed his cryptocurrency holdings, in addition to holdings in Polymarket and SpaceX.

According to data from Polymarket, the probability of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran has risen to 54%, a 27% increase in 24 hours; the probability of a meeting before April 30th has risen to 94%, a 22% increase in 24 hours. The contractual rules clearly define a diplomatic meeting as a formal meeting where representatives of the US and Iran, in official capacity and authorized to represent their respective governments, conduct negotiations or diplomatic activities regarding US-Iran relations. Indirect meetings (such as those conducted through designated mediators, coordinators, or dialogue partners, with the relevant governments aware of and authorized by the mediators) also fall under the category of diplomatic meetings. Furthermore, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that it has invited the US and Iran to Islamabad for a second round of negotiations, but the date and time have not yet been determined. Iranian Deputy Interior Minister Ali Zenivand called US President Trump's remarks about "destroying" Iranian civilization a "joke," and pointed out that "those who do not understand Iranian civilization cannot appreciate its power."

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran before April 18th has risen to 54%, a 27% increase in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, the probability of a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran before April 30th has risen to 94%, a 22% increase in the past 24 hours. According to the rules of the event contract, a diplomatic meeting refers to a formal meeting where representatives of the US and Iran, in their official capacities and authorized to represent their respective governments, negotiate or conduct diplomatic activities regarding US-Iran relations. Indirect meetings, such as those conducted through designated mediators, coordinators, or dialogue partners with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, also fall under the category of diplomatic meetings. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has invited the US and Iran to Islamabad for a second round of negotiations. The date and time for the second round of US-Iran negotiations have not yet been determined. In addition, Iranian Deputy Interior Minister Ali Zenivand stated on the 13th that US President Trump's remarks about "destroying" Iranian civilization were a "joke," and that "those who do not understand Iranian civilization cannot appreciate its power." Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, on-chain monitoring shows that a newly created wallet named "bullseye123" spent $40,000 on the prediction market Polymarket betting that Trump would announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, the position has a floating loss of about $34,000, a loss of 85%.

According to an official announcement, BitMart will launch perpetual contracts for ANDURILUSDT, KALSHIUSDT, and POLYMARKETUSDT on April 14, 2026 at 15:00 (UTC+8), supporting leverage up to 10x.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before April 30th has fallen to 14% on Polymarket, a 32% drop in 24 hours. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington on the 14th. This meeting, held amidst ongoing conflict, will focus on the possibility of a ceasefire, Hezbollah's disarmament, and a long-term peace agreement. It is understood that after President Trump pressured for de-escalation, Netanyahu agreed to move forward with negotiations, and the US has requested Israel to suspend some military operations. With diplomatic efforts underway, market expectations for Israel opening a new front in Yemen have cooled significantly. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Genius's FDV exceeding $500 million within one day of its launch on Polymarket has risen to 42%, a 34% increase in the last 24 hours. Last night, Genius announced that its airdrop was open, with all Shuttle Labs team members and investors locking their tokens for at least one year. Its official token is now listed on Binance Alpha and Bitget (for more details, see: Genius Airdrop Details: 70% Discount for TGE, or Lock for One Year for Full Reward). Furthermore, this morning, GENIUS's market capitalization briefly surpassed $800 million, currently standing at $620 million. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket's probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st" is only 37%, a 9% drop in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event state that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals ("vessel arrivals") in the Strait of Hormuz equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market's creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Xinhua News Agency reported that the US military announced it will begin implementing a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, and any unauthorized vessels entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, diverted, and detained. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support for Trump's decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully coordinating with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu stated at a cabinet meeting: "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to impose a maritime blockade." "We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining continuous coordination with the United States." Odaily Seer, the Prophet Channel, continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction event for the "League of Legends Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 2: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming," an account with a win rate exceeding 77% (0x61ceb99e031a7460c96ebe9ac81a0a558f29ed13) purchased approximately $58,000 worth of bets on Bilibili Gaming defeating JD Gaming, with an average opening price of approximately 92¢. This match is a best-of-three (BO3) series. Bilibili Gaming has been performing strongly in the second stage of the LPL recently, currently holding a 2-0 record (4-1 in games), including a 2-1 victory over JD Gaming. JD Gaming currently has a 1-2 record (3-4 in games), and is under pressure overall. The winner of this match will have a chance to compete for a top-two spot and advance to the main stage of the Esports World Cup. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Regular Season Lakers vs. Jazz" prediction event, an account with a winning percentage over 66% (address: 0x1f28a0404133776151339ff618c876b81a59266e) purchased $200,000 worth of bets on the Lakers defeating the Jazz, with an average opening price of 91¢. The NBA regular season game between the Lakers and the Jazz started at 8:30 AM Beijing time today. Today is the last day of the NBA regular season. The Lakers have a record of 52 wins and 29 losses, ranking 3rd in the Western Conference; the Jazz have a record of 22 wins and 59 losses, ranking 15th in the Western Conference. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.