According to BlockBeats, on August 28th, tradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitored that between 2:00 PM and 2:02 PM today, Polymarket trader "fafafafafafafafsadasdq" completed 5 consecutive "Yes" buy orders, betting on:

- A 25 basis point rate cut in September presents a roughly 1.4% probability of a buy signal;

- A rate cut of at least 50 basis points in September presents a buy probability of approximately 0.4%;

- A 25 basis point rate cut in October presents a buy probability of approximately 3.9%;

- There will be one interest rate cut in 2026, with a probability of buying approximately 9.0%;

- If an interest rate cut occurs 12 months from now, the probability of buying is approximately 12.0%.

Five trades were completed within approximately 130 seconds, totaling approximately $238.90. Currently, the total cost of all interest rate-related forecast positions is approximately $5,189.70, with a present value of approximately $4,214.80, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $974.90. The largest forecast position is the "Yes" shares for the "Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September," holding approximately 119,600 units; the average probability of buying is approximately 1.59%; and the cumulative investment is approximately $1,909.60.

Meanwhile, its Hyperliquid associated address (0xe8e4) is still shorting 268.7 contracts of the S&P 500 at 50x leverage, with a position value of approximately $2.076 million. The average entry price was 7667.5 points, and the current price is approximately 7724.1 points, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $15,200. The liquidation price for this short position is currently 7771.1 points, only 47.0 points away from the current price, approximately 0.61%.

News reports indicate that Warsh will deliver a Jackson Hole keynote speech tonight at 10 PM Beijing time, a schedule already outlined in the Federal Reserve's official calendar.

According to BlockBeats, on August 28, Polymarket trader "xm39," who had previously bet on the US invading Iran before 2027 and was also long on crude oil, began to simultaneously reduce his "war escalation" positions on both sides yesterday. He even reversed his position and went short on crude oil this morning.

Yesterday, its associated address 0x40f closed 175,900 long positions in WTI crude oil, with a transaction value of approximately $14.253 million, resulting in a loss of approximately $282,000. About two minutes later, "xm39" began to sell off war prediction positions on Polymarket.

1.1823 million units of the stock "The US will invade Iran before 2027" were sold through 50 transactions. At the time of the transactions, the implied probability in the market was approximately 14.1%, and approximately $166,700 was recovered. This sale represented approximately 75.5% of the position, leaving only 383,100 units remaining.

As of press time, the market implied probability of "the United States invading Iran before 2027" has further decreased to 12.5%. The remaining 383,100 Yes contracts have an average entry probability of approximately 23.28%, a current value of approximately $47,900, a floating loss of approximately $41,300, and a loss rate of 46.3%.

This morning, this address opened a total of 122,500 short contracts of CL, currently holding a short position of approximately $10.183 million with a leverage of 20 times, showing a floating profit of approximately $30,000, a return of approximately 5.9%, and a liquidation price of $93.09. It also placed 7 stop-loss orders between $83.522 and $84.001, covering approximately 91.3% of the current short position.

WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, mainly driven by easing expectations of US-Iran negotiations and renewed supply risks; however, oil prices are still down about 4.3% this week. The short position was established after the overnight rebound.

Previous report: Trader "xm39" predicted that crude oil would continue to rise and increased his position to $48 million.

The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats are now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address tracing to whale operations, providing in-depth analysis and a complete overview.

According to BlockBeats, on August 28th, prediction market platform Polymarket US withdrew two applications for NFL player participation contracts. These contracts had just been certified by the CFTC the day before their scheduled listing date, and were withdrawn without public explanation. The contracts involved whether a player participated in at least one offensive or defensive play, and were intended to be settled based on official NFL game records, categorized as binary options swaps.

On the same day, Polymarket certified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price contracts to the CFTC, which are also paired binary option swap contracts.

BlockBeats reported on August 28 that, according to sources familiar with the matter, federal authorities are preparing to file a lawsuit against a U.S. military member suspected of betting on military operations and profiting more than $1 million on the Polymarket platform, as part of a wave of upcoming insider trading cases. The sources revealed that the military member, who has been under investigation since the spring, successfully bet on events related to military strikes against Iran and Venezuela on the prediction market. This is one of several investigations targeting military personnel involved in war-related contract trading concerning the timing and outcome of military operations.

In addition, the U.S. is also investigating a KPMG employee who allegedly bet that a company's performance would exceed market expectations. (Wall Street Journal)

According to BlockBeats, on August 27th, Polymarket trader "r1ch4rd" reported that his long-term CLARITY bill prediction position, established in June, has suffered a floating loss of approximately 74.9%, and he has not sold any shares to date. Meanwhile, after suspending Hyperliquid trading for nearly two months, he recently resumed trading in the last six days, completing nine rounds of contract trading, all of which were profitable, accumulating a total profit of approximately $482,400.

r1ch4rd has been betting since June 3rd that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026. It has completed 19 buy orders, holding approximately 33,400 Yes tokens at a cost of approximately $19,300, with an overall position establishment probability of approximately 57.83%. The position was established when the market probability was still close to 60%; from June 8th to 11th, after the probability dropped to 46%, it continued to slightly increase its position.

As of press time, the probability of this event has dropped significantly to 14.5%, approximately 43.3 percentage points lower than its overall probability of establishing a position. Its position is currently showing a floating loss of approximately $14,500, representing a loss of about 74.9%, but it has not yet sold any Yes shares.

Around the same time that the CLARITY position was established, r1ch4rd also began frequently trading Hyperliquid (0xe60d), but its early performance was not ideal. From the establishment of the first prediction position to June 27, its contract side accumulated a net loss of approximately $305,500, mainly from NEAR, ZEC, and the first round of ETH long positions.

After June 27, the address suspended Hyperliquid trading for approximately 56 days until it re-entered the market on August 22.

The results after his return were completely the opposite. He has completed nine rounds of trading in the past six days, all of which were profitable, earning approximately $482,400.

- 8 rounds of ETH long/short trading resulted in a cumulative profit of approximately $473,500;

- One round of BTC short positions yielded a profit of approximately $8,897;

The largest single-round profit came from a long position of 2,450 ETH established between August 24th and 25th, realizing a profit of approximately $163,600. The latest round involved buying ETH at $2,465.5 and closing all positions at $2,484.3 this afternoon, with a position of approximately $8.903 million, resulting in another profit.

In comparison, its current CLARITY forecast position is only showing a floating loss of approximately $14,500. The contract profits over the last six days alone have reached approximately 33.4 times its initial investment.

According to Beating AI News, the identity guessing game for the mysterious model Ox Alpha has clearly shifted towards Zhipu. On Polymarket, Z.ai currently has a probability of over 90%, while Google, in second place, only has about 5%. Ox Alpha is an anonymous inference model that recently appeared on OpenRouter, focusing on programming and long-duration agent tasks.

The strongest clue came from the backend. Community developers intentionally sent incorrect parameters to OpenCode's Ox Alpha API, and the server returned `com.wd.paas.api.domain.v4.chat.ChatCompletionRequest`. The path `paas/v4/chat` directly matches the official Z.ai API path. When further invalid roles were sent, Ox Alpha returned a 1214 "Incorrect role information," consistent with the GLM managed by Z.ai itself. However, when the same GLM weights were managed by DeepInfra, the error format changed.

The model's fingerprint also matched. A public forensic test ran over 600 requests and approximately 13.5 million input tokens, and all 44 tokenizer tests matched the GLM-5 generation.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, both prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket indicated that the probability of the 10-year US Treasury yield continuing to rise this year is higher. Kalshi data shows a 56% probability that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026, and a 27% probability that it will exceed 5%. Polymarket, on the other hand, shows approximately a two-thirds probability that the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% at least once this year.

Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter's attempts to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term Treasury repurchase agreements, the market reaction has been lukewarm. Barclays strategists believe that factors such as sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premiums could still push yields higher, estimating a fair yield of approximately 4.95% for the 10-year Treasury bond, about 25 basis points higher than current levels.

Furthermore, rising Japanese government bond yields and increased AI capital expenditures could further weaken overseas investors' demand for US Treasuries. Meanwhile, the approximately 4.7% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has begun to pose a stronger competition to US stocks, suggesting the market may be gradually transitioning from a "TINA" (no other option) to a "TARA" (truly alternative) era.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, Polymarket trader "TwoEyes" bet for four consecutive days that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September, but today he reversed course and shorted the Nasdaq.

From the morning of August 22nd to the early morning of August 23rd, the investor spent approximately $113,700 through 149 purchases, betting that interest rates would remain unchanged in September, with a weighted probability of approximately 68.42% at the time of purchase. Early this morning, the investor invested another approximately $10,050 with an average probability of 67%, continuing to bet that interest rates would not rise by 25 basis points in September. The total additional investment from these two rounds is approximately $123,700.

As of press time, the probability of "interest rates remaining unchanged in September" is 66.5%, and the probability of "no 25 basis point rate hike in September" is 67.5%. The combined cost of its two core positions is approximately $151,200, and the current unrealized loss is approximately $4,168.

About six hours after the latest round of market prediction buying ended at 4 a.m. today, the associated address began establishing a short position in the Nasdaq on Hyperliquid.

Currently, this address has shorted 51,6369 contracts of XYZ100 with a leverage of 30x, with a position value of approximately US$1,510,800. XYZ100 is currently trading at 29,258 points, with a floating loss of approximately US$10,800, a return of approximately -21.69%, and a liquidation price of 38,444.8 points.

With the positions at both ends combined, the $151,200 forecast position may have provided limited upside insurance for this tenfold $1.51 million Nasdaq short position.

If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in September, the two core forecast positions could be redeemed for a total of approximately $220,200; based on current holding costs and excluding transaction fees, the maximum profit would be approximately $69,100.

For every 1 point increase in the Nasdaq short position, 51.6369 contracts would incur a loss of approximately $51.64. This projected profit could cover a maximum increase of approximately 1337.5 points, equivalent to about 4.6% of the entry price of 29,048 points, corresponding to a static break-even point of approximately 30,385.5 points.

The XYZ100 has now risen to 29,258 points, consuming approximately 210 points of buffer. Based on current prices, assuming the outcome of "keeping interest rates unchanged in September" materializes, the remaining profit of the forecast position could potentially cover approximately 1,127.5 points, or 3.85%, of the misjudged upside potential for the Nasdaq short position.