According to Odaily Seer, a channel monitoring the market, in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Finals Game 7: Thunder vs. Spurs," a "smart money" account (address: 0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684) with a profit exceeding $4.5 million purchased $300,000 worth of shares betting on the Thunder defeating the Spurs. The average opening price was 56.4¢, resulting in a floating profit of $6,900. Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and the Spurs tipped off at 8:00 AM Beijing time today, with the score currently tied at 3-3. The Spurs' starting lineup is Vassell, Jampagne, Wahlbanama, Castle, and Fox; the Thunder's starting lineup is Dort, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Wallace, and Alexander. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are priced in.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, blockchain analyst Ai Yi reported that the Polymarket account TrevorPlovdivBulgariaForHisBirthday predicted a BLG victory in tonight's LoL match between BLG and WE, resulting in a cumulative loss of $157,500. Before the match, BLG had a 95.5% chance of winning, but ultimately lost 1-3.

According to a recent report by Grayscale, a digital asset management company, the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain financial infrastructure platform, potentially even challenging traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems and growing into a "financial services giant." The report shows that Hyperliquid achieved approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with an annual perpetual contract trading volume of approximately $2.9 trillion and open interest of approximately $7 billion, holding a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes that the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading but is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets through its HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure. Another report by FalconX also points out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges like CME Group and prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets such as pre-IPO. The report also emphasizes that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, the sector may see greater growth potential in the future as the regulatory framework becomes clearer and institutions such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products.

According to a recent report by Grayscale, a digital asset management company, the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain financial infrastructure platform. It may even challenge traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems in the future and grow into a "financial services giant." The report shows that Hyperliquid achieved approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with an annual perpetual contract trading volume of approximately $2.9 trillion and open interest of approximately $7 billion, holding a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes that the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading but is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets through its HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure. Another report by FalconX also points out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges such as CME Group and prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets such as pre-IPO. The report also emphasizes that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, this sector may see broader growth potential as the regulatory framework becomes clearer and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products. (CoinDesk)

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0x65b54274eba5c76dee6f0fab18a590653811e82f) that profited over $840,000 in the "UEFA Champions League Winner" prediction event on Polymarket purchased a total of $1,549,000 worth of shares betting on Arsenal defeating Paris Saint-Germain one hour ago, with an average opening price of 44¢. As of now, the total trading volume for this prediction event has reached $263 million. The 2025-2026 UEFA Champions League final will kick off at midnight Beijing time on May 31st at the Puskas Stadium in Budapest, Hungary, featuring defending champions Paris Saint-Germain against Arsenal, who are returning to the final after 20 years. The two teams have met five times in the Champions League, with PSG holding a slight advantage with two wins, two draws, and one loss. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, anticipating changes before prices are set.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market Polymarket released a platform update this week, including: the launch of the World Cup page and the start of functional testing; the launch of perpetual contract functionality (including 5 traditional financial trading pairs and BTC perpetual contracts); CLOB performance optimizations with a planned release next week to address queue congestion issues; SDK open-sourcing; the launch of the unified API; and Gamma fixes and improvements (stricter key set pagination and high-traffic read path indexing, and production correctness fixes for users, profiles, comments, and sports summaries).

According to data from Polymarket, the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31st has dropped to 23%, a decrease of 17% in 24 hours; the probability of selling before June 30th is 67%, a decrease of 6% in 24 hours; and the probability of selling before December 31st is 88%, a decrease of 3% in 24 hours. Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase today, the exact amount deposited the previous day, seemingly dispelling market rumors of a Bitcoin sale.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31st on Polymarket has dropped to 23%, a 17% decrease in 24 hours. Furthermore, the probability of selling before June 30th is 67%, down 6% in 24 hours; and the probability of selling before December 31st is 88%, down 3% in 24 hours. Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase today, exactly the same amount deposited the previous day, seemingly refuting the sell rumors. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to crypto analyst Ai (@ai_9684xtpa), Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase three hours ago, exactly the same amount as the 411 BTC transferred to Coinbase the previous day. Ai suggests this move may indicate a misunderstanding of previous market speculation about Strategy selling Bitcoin. However, the probability of the predicted event "Strategy will sell BTC before the end of the year" on Polymarket has not significantly decreased, currently remaining at 89%.

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684) that profited over $3.8 million in the "UEFA Champions League Winner" prediction event on Polymarket purchased $284,000 worth of shares betting on Arsenal defeating Paris Saint-Germain at an average opening price of 42¢. As of now, the total trading volume for this prediction event has approached $260 million. Paris Saint-Germain's probability of winning is 57%, while Arsenal's is 44%. The 2025-2026 UEFA Champions League final will kick off at midnight Beijing time on May 31st at the Puskas Stadium in Budapest, Hungary. The two teams will be defending champions Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal, who are returning to the final after 20 years. In their previous five Champions League encounters, PSG holds a slight advantage with two wins, two draws, and one loss. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market sector, providing two-way quote liquidity services to several mainstream event contract platforms. This marks the formal expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market where crypto and traditional assets intersect. Currently, it continuously provides two-way quotes on multiple leading platforms, with the combined monthly trading volume of related prediction markets exceeding $20 billion this year. While the sector is growing rapidly, it is still in the early stages of liquidity development. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities. Its OTC trading head stated that the demand structure of prediction markets is similar to traditional asset classes, but liquidity is insufficient. Continuous two-way quotes are needed to improve price discovery efficiency and trading depth. Closer spreads and greater trading capacity will enhance the quality of market probability signals. Currently, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered the market, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having a cumulative trading volume exceeding $150 billion. Wintermute's entry will drive the integration of prediction markets and crypto infrastructure. In terms of stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems, this type of market is gradually approaching the institutional development structure of derivatives.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that quantitative market maker Wintermute has announced its entry into the prediction market space, providing two-way quote liquidity services to several major event contract platforms. This marks the formal expansion of its trading infrastructure into the emerging market where crypto and traditional assets intersect. According to the company, it has been continuously providing two-way quotes on several "leading platforms," whose combined monthly trading volume this year has exceeded $20 billion, indicating that the sector is growing rapidly but is still in its early stages of liquidity development. Wintermute's annual trading volume exceeds $3.5 trillion, and this expansion further strengthens its cross-asset market-making capabilities. Jake Ostrovskis, the company's head of OTC trading, stated that prediction markets have a demand structure similar to traditional asset classes, but liquidity remains insufficient, requiring continuous two-way quotes to improve price discovery efficiency and trading depth. He pointed out that tighter spreads and greater trading capacity will enhance the quality of market probability signals. In the industry, institutions such as Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital have also entered this field, with some platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi having accumulated trading volumes exceeding $150 billion. Analysts believe that Wintermute's entry further promotes the integration of prediction markets with crypto infrastructure, particularly in stablecoin settlement, on-chain clearing, and risk management systems. This type of market is gradually approaching the institutionalized development structure of derivatives. (The Block)

According to Huoxun Finance, the Polymarket development team stated that the current trading function is experiencing an anomaly. The team has identified the cause of the problem and is deploying a fix. Users can check the official status page for real-time updates.

According to Huoxun Finance, U.S. prosecutors this week filed insider trading charges against Michel Spanuolo, a 36-year-old Italian software engineer at Google. Using the alias "AlphaRaccoon," he allegedly misappropriated internal search trend data to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket before Google's 2025 annual search data was released, accumulating profits exceeding $1.2 million. The FBI identified him by tracking cryptocurrency payments. Google has suspended him, stating that his actions were a serious violation of company policy. Spanuolo is charged with violating the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and money laundering, and could face years in prison.

According to Huoxun Finance, Bitcoin is currently stabilizing around $73,500, down about 10% from its high of $81,000 this month, underperforming other risk assets. The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest outflow, with a cumulative net outflow of approximately $2.8 billion, indicating weakening new buying. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has lagged behind popular sectors such as AI and semiconductors, and some institutions are reducing their Bitcoin exposure and allocating funds to stronger-performing assets. Glassnode believes that current ETF inflows and spot demand are insufficient to support a return of BTC above $78,000. CryptoQuant data shows that long-term holders' holdings have reached a record 15.8 million BTC, with this growth partly due to investors not trading for extended periods rather than new purchases. Polymarket data shows that the market consensus expects BTC to close in the $72,000 to $76,000 range by the end of this month. Altcoins are performing better relative to BTC; the altcoin index (excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies) has risen above its 50-week exponential moving average. If it maintains this level at the close this week, altcoins may still have about 20% upside potential relative to BTC.

According to Huoxun Finance, Arca's Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Dorman, pointed out that Strategy's current preferred stock financing structure, amounting to approximately $15 billion, is out of control. This preferred stock requires annual dividend payments of about $1.5 billion, and maintaining this structure is becoming increasingly difficult given the volatility of Bitcoin prices. Strategy's financing model is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will continue to rise significantly. Previously, the company mitigated short-term default risks by issuing new shares, but the logic behind its repurchase of bonds maturing in 2029 is questionable. He believes Strategy may ultimately face two choices: selling Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends, or ceasing dividend payments, both of which will have a significant impact on the company and investors. Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with CNBC that the company may sell Bitcoin at some point in the future, but will continue to increase its overall BTC holdings and the number of BTC per share. Polymarket data shows that the market expects the probability of Strategy selling some of its BTC by the end of 2026 to have risen to approximately 90%. As of now, Strategy holds 843,738 BTC, with a total cost of approximately $63.87 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $75,700.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of WTI crude oil reaching $100 in May 2026 on Polymarket has fallen to 1%, a 24-hour drop of 11%. The expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is spreading, and international oil prices quickly fell after news broke that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days. Brent crude oil prices dipped to around $91 per barrel, a cumulative drop of over 17% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since 2020; meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $87 per barrel. However, uncertainties remain regarding the details of the agreement, as Trump has not yet approved the relevant terms. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that Polymarket has added a new prediction event: "Will the US federal government officially issue a $250 bill featuring Trump's portrait before December 31, 2026?" US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on May 28 that, in celebration of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, the government has prepared a design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump's portrait. However, the actual progress of this plan is currently hampered by the stalled legislative process in Congress. According to HR 1761, which was proposed as early as February 2025, issuing this currency requires amending the Federal Reserve Act to authorize the new denomination and exempt it from the long-standing legal restriction prohibiting the printing of portraits of living persons on US dollars. Since the bill is currently stuck in the House Financial Services Committee and has not yet reached a full House vote or made progress in the Senate, the probability of completing legislation and printing and issuing the bill in the remainder of this year is low. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to data from Polymarket, Strategy's probability of selling Bitcoin this week has increased significantly, rising from a low of 11% today to 30%. This morning, Strategy transferred 411.48 Bitcoins, worth $30.3 million, to Coinbase.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin this week (before May 31st) has surged on Polymarket, rising from a low of 11% today to 30%. This morning, Strategy deposited 411.48 BTC, worth $30.3 million, into Coinbase. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.