Trader Gu Jingci

Tonight's CPI is a key turning point in this market cycle, directly influencing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. If CPI exceeds expectations, persistent inflation will delay rate cut expectations, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with Ethereum experiencing greater volatility. If CPI falls short of expectations, cooling inflation will boost rate cut hopes, improving liquidity sentiment and likely triggering a rebound in the crypto market. If data matches expectations, prices may initially surge then retreat, maintaining a range-bound movement. The current market is already prone to consolidation, and the release of data could trigger sharp spikes, concentrated liquidations in contracts. Focus should be placed on the core CPI components, which are the decisive factor determining capital flow direction.