Ahead of the CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 61% on Polymarket, an 8% increase in 24 hours.

PPP forecasting market monitoring shows that ahead of the CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 61% on Polymarket, an 8% increase in 24 hours; the probability of no change fell to 40%, an 8% decrease in 24 hours. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. The market expects the overall CPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; the core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. This data will be a crucial reference for whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week for the first time in over three years. The last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates was on July 26, 2023, when it raised rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25%–5.50%. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.