According to BlockBeats, on August 28th, tradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitored that between 2:00 PM and 2:02 PM today, Polymarket trader "fafafafafafafafsadasdq" completed 5 consecutive "Yes" buy orders, betting on:
- A 25 basis point rate cut in September presents a roughly 1.4% probability of a buy signal;
- A rate cut of at least 50 basis points in September presents a buy probability of approximately 0.4%;
- A 25 basis point rate cut in October presents a buy probability of approximately 3.9%;
- There will be one interest rate cut in 2026, with a probability of buying approximately 9.0%;
- If an interest rate cut occurs 12 months from now, the probability of buying is approximately 12.0%.
Five trades were completed within approximately 130 seconds, totaling approximately $238.90. Currently, the total cost of all interest rate-related forecast positions is approximately $5,189.70, with a present value of approximately $4,214.80, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $974.90. The largest forecast position is the "Yes" shares for the "Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September," holding approximately 119,600 units; the average probability of buying is approximately 1.59%; and the cumulative investment is approximately $1,909.60.
Meanwhile, its Hyperliquid associated address (0xe8e4) is still shorting 268.7 contracts of the S&P 500 at 50x leverage, with a position value of approximately $2.076 million. The average entry price was 7667.5 points, and the current price is approximately 7724.1 points, resulting in a floating loss of approximately $15,200. The liquidation price for this short position is currently 7771.1 points, only 47.0 points away from the current price, approximately 0.61%.
News reports indicate that Warsh will deliver a Jackson Hole keynote speech tonight at 10 PM Beijing time, a schedule already outlined in the Federal Reserve's official calendar.