According to BlockBeats , on August 10th, Polymarket trader "xm39" continued to face pressure on his "The US will invade Iran by 2027" Yes bet, with the position now at 1,099,200 contracts, a total cost of approximately $286,200, and an average holding price of 26.03 cents.
The contract is currently trading at 15.5 cents, and its position value has decreased to approximately $170,400, with a floating loss of approximately $115,800, representing a loss of 40.47%. Compared to when it was tracked on August 3, xm39 has since increased its holdings by approximately 161,500 contracts, adding approximately $31,500, widening its floating loss by approximately $53,300; no new market prediction transactions have been observed today.
Meanwhile, xm39 established another long position in crude oil this morning. By noon, it had purchased 88,000 WTI crude oil contracts (CL) through 873 transactions, totaling approximately $6.9127 million, at a price of $78.54 per contract. As of press time, this address held a 20x leveraged position, with a floating profit of approximately $15,700, a return of approximately 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75.
Almost simultaneously with the start of crude oil purchases, xm39 also opened short positions in XYZ100 by 24.31 contracts at an average price of 29,729.68 points, with a trading volume of approximately $722,700. It currently holds a total of 80.28 XYZ100 short positions, with a position value of approximately $2,397,600, an average price of 29,654.27 points, a floating loss of approximately $16,900, and a liquidation price of 32,984.70 points.
The two positions currently have a combined notional value of approximately US$9,325,900. The unrealized gains and losses roughly offset each other, resulting in a net unrealized loss of approximately US$1,258. Additionally, there are 20 buy orders for XYZ100 at 29,388 points, with a notional amount of approximately US$587,800, indicating a plan to reduce existing short positions by approximately 24.9%.
Currently, it continues to bet on US military action against Iran on Polymarket, and has resumed going long on crude oil and shorting Nasdaq-mapped contracts on Hyperliquid, both pointing to a macroeconomic direction of escalating war, stronger oil prices, and pressure on risk assets.
It is reported that none of the trader's 65 closed positions on Polymarket were related to the US-Iran, Iran, or Hormuz markets; in crude oil trading, he had a 4-1 record on 5 long positions, a win rate of 80%; and his only short position yielded a profit of approximately $17,200.
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