According to BlockBeats, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision on July 30. The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, but the biggest focus will be on whether there will be a surprise rate hike, the wording of the policy statement, and voting disagreements. The market will pay close attention to whether the statement includes more hawkish language, its description of inflation risks, and Chairman Warsh's latest assessment of inflation, the Middle East situation, and the future policy path at the press conference.
Analysts generally expect Hammark and Logan to vote against the rate hike, with two dissenting votes becoming the market benchmark. If more than two dissenting votes are cast, it could be seen as a further strengthening of the hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve and an increase in expectations for a September rate hike.
According to Kalshi, a market forecasting firm, there is a 58% probability that both Hammark and Logan will vote against the proposal; Polymarket, on the other hand, indicates that the highest probability (40%) is two dissenting votes, while the probabilities of one and three dissenting votes are 21% and 13%, respectively. Market participants believe that the outcome of this meeting and Warsh's speech may drive a repricing of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and gold prices.