On Polymarket, the probability of "US-Iran peace talks before August 7" has fallen to 9%, a 14% drop in the last 24 hours.

PPP forecasting market monitoring shows that the probability of "US-Iran peace talks before August 7th" on Polymarket has dropped to 9%, a 14% decrease in 24 hours. This event will be settled based on whether representatives from both the US and Iran begin the next round of formal high-level peace talks by a designated date (before 11:59 PM ET). Eligible negotiations must be in-person diplomatic meetings or rounds of negotiations involving senior representatives from both sides. Representatives must participate in an official capacity and be authorized by their respective governments to directly conduct or substantially promote diplomatic negotiations. In-person diplomacy through designated mediators, coordinators, or intermediaries is also counted, but senior representatives from both the US and Iran must participate in the same formal diplomatic process, and both governments must be aware of and authorize it. Representatives from both sides do not need to be in the same location simultaneously. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize opportunities.