Post-Halving Cycles Point to Strong September Pullback Before Q4 Rally

While Bitcoin is on a recovery path after several weeks of declining prices, some analysts believe the rally may not last. At press time, Bitcoin has notably rebounded, trading above $112,400. This comes after it dipped to $107,271 last week, one of its lowest levels since July. Amid the ongoing recovery, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto, took to X to urge market participants to temper their expectations. Bitcoin’s Historical Pattern in September Specifically, Cowen highlighted Bitcoin’s historical tendency to revisit its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) during September of post-halving years, before bouncing into the final cycle rally in Q4. According to him, the recent pullbacks to around the 20W SMA are not unusual and align with the broader cyclical framework. He pointed to similar occurrences in September 2017 and September 2021, both of which were post-halving periods. Interestingly, market data confirms that Bitcoin ended September 2021 and 2017 with dips of 7.30% and 7.72%, respectively. Likewise, in September 2013, the coin ended the month with a 1.58% loss. Meanwhile, as of now, September 2025 is showing a 3.66% gain, but Cowen believes history will repeat itself.

Analysts Question Cycle Consistency However, other analysts suggest that this September may play out differently. For instance, Vinicius Bazan, CEO of Underblock, pointed out that Bitcoin typically posts gains in August during post-halving years. However, this time, the market closed August in the red, despite a rate-cutting environment. Bazan suggested this divergence could signal a possible shift in the cycle’s usual rhythm, with macroeconomic factors weighing heavily on price action. For example, in August 2017, Bitcoin surged 63.8%, which naturally led to a correction the following month. Similarly, in 2021, there was a notable 14% gain in August before a September dip. In contrast, in 2025, Bitcoin finished August with a 6.43% loss, suggesting a potential relief rally could follow this month. Cowen: The Pattern Still Holds Still, Cowen pushed back, noting that Bitcoin set a new all-time high in August before its correction, a pattern observed in previous cycles. In his view, the retest of the 20-week SMA is a natural setup for a year-end push, rather than a sign of weakness. https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse/status/1963244308854710550 "Bitcoin Bottom Already In" Interestingly, another market watcher, Chetan Kaul, suggests Bitcoin’s September low may already be in. Notably, the leading cryptocurrency started the month at $108,228, reached a high of $109,890, and dipped to $107,271—a price last seen in July. Kaul's perspective indicates that Bitcoin may not set further new lows from here, hinting at more promising price action ahead. Regardless of Bitcoin’s short-term movements, analysts are nearly unanimous in their belief that BTC will be significantly higher in the years to come.