Powell’s Jackson Hole Balancing Act Keeps Crypto Range-Bound

Key Takeaways

• BTC consolidating in the $115K–$117K range, with $115K as key support and $120K–$123K as immediate resistance. Fed Chair Powell expected to keep a neutral stance at Jackson Hole, avoiding firm dovish commitments.
• ETH rally stalls again at +1σ Active Realized Price (~$4.7K), consistent with prior cycle resistance zones.
• ETF inflows remain resilient: BTC ETFs +$547M weekly, ETH ETFs +$2.85B weekly (record). Elevated medium-term implied volatility ratio signals rising structural/macro concern.

Macro Catalysts and Fed Impact

Markets enter the week focused on Powell’s keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium. Futures still price in ~85% odds of a September rate cut, but tariff-driven inflation and weaker labor market data complicate the narrative. Already, markets have seen a quick price flush with a 2% drop for BTC and 5% drop for ETH at the opening of Asian trading hours.

A hawkish tilt would function as a tightening trigger, with the likely effect of pulling risk assets lower. A neutral stance would leave BTC and ETH consolidating in recent ranges until further data (labor reports, PCE) clarifies the Fed’s path.

The macro context remains supportive on balance: equities remain near their highs, and crypto ETFs continue to attract net inflows, providing a demand cushion despite policy uncertainty.

Market Remains on Edge

Bitcoin Range Setup

BTC trades near $115K, defending its high-volume support zone. Resistance stands at $120K–$123K; a break opens the path toward $127K (+1σ). Alternatively, a breakdown below $115K risks exposing $112K. Short-term holder cost-basis remains firm, providing structural support.

Ethereum Resistance

ETH once again stalled at $4.7K (+1σ ARP), a repeated sell zone in prior cycles. Sustained ETF and treasury demand offset near-term profit taking, but breakout confirmation requires clean acceptance above this level.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC’s 6M/1M IV ratio is at extreme levels, higher than 96.8% of all observations, flagging medium-term concern around structural risks. Options skew remains modest, but elevated OI in both BTC ($39B) and ETH ($35.5B) suggests potential for sharp realized vol expansion if ranges break.

ETF Flows

• BTC ETFs : $547M net inflows last week, despite a small $14M outflow on Friday.
• ETH ETFs : $2.85B weekly inflows, including a record $1B single-day inflow on Monday, a new milestone.
• Flows signal robust institutional appetite, with ETH increasingly emerging as the speculative leader.

What Does the Market Setup Say?

Crypto enters the week in a holding pattern: BTC is pinned in the $115K–$120K range, with Powell’s remarks likely dictating the next breakout attempt.

ETH continues to attract record ETF flows but faces resistance at $4.7K, with breakouts requiring both macro alignment and sustained inflows.

With leverage rebuilt across majors and implied volatility at extremes, tight risk management is warranted.

Positioning

• Cash: 10% — Key funding held ahead of Powell’s speech; scope for vol spike.
• BTC: 35% — defended $115K support, but resistance at $120K–$123K likely sticky; add above $127K breakout.
• ETH: 40% — overweight; flows remain record-strong, but $4.7K resistance requires tactical caution.
• SOL: 10% — maintained for high-beta exposure in altcoin rotation.
• BNB/XRP: 5% each — stable beta allocations.

This sets the tone for Monday, August 18: crypto pinned by macro uncertainty, with ETF flows cushioning downside, but Powell’s message is the key directional trigger.