On Monday, Bitcoin remained just below $63,000, while Ether stayed around $1,800, per Coinmarketcap data.
This stability comes amid heightened tensions following America's third round of strikes on Iran, with Tehran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "until further notice."
As reported by Reuters, US Central Command indicated that President Trump authorized strikes aimed at diminishing Iran's capacity to target commercial vessels following an incident where Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Vessel-tracking data indicated some activity near Hormuz during Asian hours on Sunday, though it remained significantly below usual levels.
Despite the macro threat, US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had a substantial net inflow of $197.4 million in the week ending on Friday, reversing eight weeks of straight withdrawals that began in May.
According to Farside Investors data, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF received $291.9 million in new capital last week, which represents a sizable chunk of the market's positive performance. Those inflows also offset the withdrawals from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin fund.
Following two months of relentless selling pressure, the break of the outflow trend could signal a return of interest from institutions in Bitcoin. On ETF and stablecoin outflows, as well as seasonality in August and September, one expert said it is too early to make a determination.
But investors have removed $8.26 billion since May 11, making the $197.4 million weekly inflow look comparatively little.
According to recent observations shared with Cointelegraph by Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, Bitcoin could be nearing the end of its bear market.
The first technical signs point to less selling pressure, which is the basis for this evaluation.
According to some analysts, further difficulties could be on the horizon. In an interview with Cointelegraph last week, Hilbert Capital's chief investment officer, Russell Thompson, expressed his belief that Bitcoin is in a bear market and would hit rock bottom in October.
Bullish View
According to macro investor Jordi Visser, Bitcoin has now displayed its first bullish RSI divergence since last year. According to him, this signal is changing his outlook for the next several months. An analysis of a 4-hour RSI chart was what Visser used to spot the divergence.
Recently, Bitcoin's price fell below $60,000, marking a new low; yet, the relative strength index (RSI) reading stayed elevated relative to the prior low. "Now that we're above 60, I can buy as a trader. I'll just set my exit point below the recent lows," he said.
Visser, who is also an Elliott wave theory adherent, is certain that Bitcoin is about to hit the bottom of its range for the next year. The prospect of a drop to $50,000 or perhaps $45,000 is not something he rules out.
"Will we surpass 100 in a year's time?" "Certainly," he responded. "So if I buy something for 60 or any other price, does it really matter?"
The amount of capital that would go into artificial intelligence-related equities instead of cryptocurrency was something that Visser failed to anticipate, as he admitted.
He said about Micron's tenfold rise in value over the past year, "You don't find that in large corporations, and this is a large corporation," after mentioning that startups without an AI component had a hard time attracting investors last year.
The October release of Opus 4.5 and the waning hope for further rate cuts were both reflected in the move, he said.
By the end of September, the market had already priced in a 150 basis point cut, but now they're looking at the possibility of another hike.
What the Fed Does Next Matters
The Federal Reserve may increase interest rates on July 29, with current probabilities estimated between 35% and 40%, as noted by Visser.
He believes that decision-makers are unlikely to pursue rate increases, referencing recent remarks from a central bank representative indicating that advancements in AI might lead to a brief period of inflation, succeeded by a more prolonged deflationary phase.
If the Fed maintains its current stance, Visser anticipates Bitcoin will surpass $70,000, as markets start to eliminate the possibility of any rate increase ahead of the midterm elections.
He also highlighted a recent address by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, contending that digital assets and stablecoins are increasingly pivotal to the administration's vision for redefining the nation's position in global finance.
Meanwhile, data showed that Bitcoin has hit an unprecedented oversold position compared to gold, reminiscent of the conditions prior to a remarkable 660% macro rally in BTC.
BeInCrypto reported that the BTC/Gold oscillator currently stands at -1.81 standard deviations from its long-term trend, falling below its four-year average of -1.42. This indicates the most significant reading since 2010.
The report indicates that Bitcoin is currently trading below its established trend and four-year average, with the structural fair value of the trend suggesting a potential price around $283,000.
BeInCrypto highlighted that comparable low points were observed in 2015, during 2018-19, amid the COVID pandemic in 2020, and following the FTX collapse in 2022.
Whale Movement Brings New Hope
A top holder of Bitcoin transferred approximately $188 million worth of BTC to a new address on Sunday, marking the end of nearly seven years and nine months of inactivity.
As reported by Onchain Lens, referencing Arkham data, the wallet "356my…BAsmK" transferred 2,931 BTC to an unmarked address, "bc1qn…8gp25," at approximately 3:41 p.m. ET.
The recipient address has remained inactive with Bitcoin since then.
There has been a roughly tenfold increase in the value of the whale's Bitcoin holdings since their previous transaction on October 23, 2018, when the cryptocurrency was worth around $6,475.
Such deals often happen before asset sales, giving the owner a chance to make a profit, even when the reasoning behind the change is unclear. Several whales came out of extended periods of dormancy to move their holdings during last year's high levels. After a 14-year hiatus, in July 2025, one person or organization moved over $8.7 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking a noteworthy event.
Saylor's Cryptic Messaging
Strategy co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shared the company's Bitcoin acquisition tracker on X Sunday morning, captioning it, "Orange dots tell only part of the story," which provided a more nuanced indication than his usual suggestions of an upcoming purchase.
Orange dots tell only part of the story. pic.twitter.com/HFZd2z7fus
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 12, 2026
Saylor's Sunday tracker updates usually precede the paperwork that discloses bitcoin buys on Monday.
The reliability of the trend has been declining as of late.
For example, a post on June 28 stating "We're gonna need more charts" was followed by a new capital framework instead of a buy, and a post on July 5 preceded the largest sale in company history, but captions like "A good time to add more dots" and "Looks better with more dots" came before purchase disclosures.
The announcement comes just after Strategy announced the largest Bitcoin liquidation in the company's history - the selling of 3,588 BTC for around $216 million.
There was a transaction of 1,363 BTC for $80.8 million in the final two days of June, and then another sale of 2,225 BTC for $135.2 million from July 1 to 5.
The business said the money would go toward paying preferred stock distributions and reestablishing the portion of the company's dollar reserve that had been used for those payments.
Over the course of the period, Strategy bought 843,775 BTC for $63.69 billion, or $75,476 per coin on average. The entire value of such assets is over $54 billion, as BTC stays around $64,000.
Strategy ends up with around $9.7 billion in unrealized losses, which is equivalent to nearly 15% of its initial investment, due to this circumstance. With a little over 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoins in circulation, the company is still the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency.
The orange dots also don't show the whole spectrum of what the business can achieve anymore.
In late June, Strategy implemented a more comprehensive capital framework that allows for the selling of Bitcoin to fund its dollar reserve, preferred dividends, debt interest, and securities repurchases.
Class A common shares and preferred instruments were each permitted to be repurchased for $1 billion separately.
According to reports, Strategy's dollar reserve was $2.55 billion as of July 5, and all of the $1.25 billion that might be used to construct reserves under the new BTC Monetization Program never was.
During the week ending July 5, the firm did not engage in any share sales through its at-the-market programs or share purchases through its buyback programs.
Saylor's latest post may also precede more than just a regular announcement about an acquisition.
Strategy has not verified any buy, sell, or other transaction for the week ending Sunday, and Saylor did not provide any more details.
What Do Technical Readings Show?
After recovering from a 21-month low of around $58,000 in late June, Bitcoin is now trading at about $63,500, coiled beneath a significant technical ceiling.
Once BTC recaptures the $65,600–$65,800 level, which is the meeting point of the 50-day exponential moving average and the daily Bollinger upper band, the door will open to $68,000–$70,000.
That is according to TradingView, which puts that view as a binary setup. If Bitcoin falls there once again, it might hit a new low, putting $58,000 and then $55,000 back into play.
There are conflicting messages on the recording. The relative strength index (RSI) is currently at 52, which is neutral.
Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear zone, having risen around 10 points from its extreme-fear lows.
This rising-price-amid-pessimism divergence has often been seen before, as sellers' weariness rather than new capitulation.
Following weeks of withdrawals focused in BlackRock's IBIT, spot ETF flows have stabilized, and long-term investors are once again adding to their hoard, which has reached a record 14.7 million BTC, as they accumulate near $60,000.
The biggest single sell in Strategy's history, at $216 million, and the decision by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to defer a rate cut in June, which caused the initial fall below the 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023, are working against the comeback.
TradingView's technical analysis overview for the coming week, based on key data from moving averages, oscillators, and pivot points, points to a strong sell signal.
The short- and long-term sub gauges too showed no respite, with a sell reading.
Separately, InvestTech's Algorithmic Overall Analysis gave a weak negative score, even as its one-to-six-week recommendation was a hold.
The research said, "Bitcoin is in a rising trend channel in the short term. Rising trends indicate that the currency experiences positive development and that buying interest among investors is increasing. The token has support at $60,800 and resistance at $66,000. The short-term momentum of the currency is strongly positive, with RSI above 70. This indicates increasing optimism among investors and a further price increase for Bitcoin."
InvestTech added, "However, particularly for big stocks, high RSI may be a sign that the stock is overbought and that there is a chance of a reaction downwards. Bitcoin is overall assessed as technically neutral for the short term."