Elon Musk
@elonmusk
RT
@wintonARK: On the remarkable return on capital potential for Starlink on Starship. Including customer acquisition cost, ground station capex, and an expendable top stage, we think SpaceX should be able to launch its 10th commercial starship rocket for ~$500m. The bandwidth it launches could yield $1.2 billion in revenue annually for as long as the satellites are in orbit. 13x cash on cash return. For a time (100 launches or so) cash requirements per kg (and per tbps) of launch should roughly keep pace with the revenue decay in monetizing incremental orbital comms throughput. Basically, their per launch cost decline, driven by rocket upsizing, satellite manufacturing efficiency and full re-useability, should out-compete declining ARPU (or at least keep pace). Net, very crudely, it works to the company being able to deploy $50b in capital building satellites, launching rockets and acquiring customers at a ~13x cash on cash return over a few years.
@wintonARK: On the remarkable return on capital potential for Starlink on Starship. Including customer acquisition cost, ground station capex, and an expendable top stage, we think SpaceX should be able to launch its 10th commercial starship rocket for ~$500m. The bandwidth it launches could yield $1.2 billion in revenue annually for as long as the satellites are in orbit. 13x cash on cash return. For a time (100 launches or so) cash requirements per kg (and per tbps) of launch should roughly keep pace with the revenue decay in monetizing incremental orbital comms throughput. Basically, their per launch cost decline, driven by rocket upsizing, satellite manufacturing efficiency and full re-useability, should out-compete declining ARPU (or at least keep pace). Net, very crudely, it works to the company being able to deploy $50b in capital building satellites, launching rockets and acquiring customers at a ~13x cash on cash return over a few years.
@wintonARK
On the remarkable return on capital potential for Starlink on Starship.
Including customer acquisition cost, ground station capex, and an expendable top stage, we think SpaceX should be able to launch its 10th commercial starship rocket for ~$500m.
The bandwidth it launches could yield $1.2 billion in revenue annually for as long as the satellites are in orbit. 13x cash on cash return.
For a time (100 launches or so) cash requirements per kg (and per tbps) of launch should roughly keep pace with the revenue decay in monetizing incremental orbital comms throughput. Basically, their per launch cost decline, driven by rocket upsizing, satellite manufacturing efficiency and full re-useability, should out-compete declining ARPU (or at least keep pace).
Net, very crudely, it works to the company being able to deploy $50b in capital building satellites, launching rockets and acquiring customers at a ~13x cash on cash return over a few years.
This is a business without precedent.
