The cryptocurrency market began 2026 with a shaky start. Michaël van de Poppe, a leader in Crypto Currency Analysis, has warned traders of a government shutdown and the potential for price movement due to the gaps at $89.4K on the CME chart. Bitcoin is currently trading at $90,000 per coin, creating conflicting forces on traders (political and technical).
Washington Gridlock Threatens the Market
The specter of another American government shutdown has come once again to haunt the financial markets. According to recent developments, Congress left for the Christmas recess without crafting a final budget deal that left the January 31, 2026, funding deadline uncomfortably close. Polymarket data now shows the likelihood of a shutdown is 38% reflecting increasing anxiety among institutional and retail investors.
The implications for the crypto markets are huge. During the prior shutdown that started in October 2025 and lasted 43 days, Bitcoin saw an increased volatility, and at some point, it even touched below the critical level of $100,000 psychological level.
Analysts in the finance industry have reported that long-term U.S. government shutdowns have delayed investments across many federal programs and reduced overall market liquidity. This environment has made it more difficult for individuals to invest in stocks and digital currencies.
According to BitMEX Research, the government shutdown led the Treasury’s General Account to rise from around $0.7 trillion to $1 trillion. An estimated $0.7 trillion was withdrawn from circulation, causing riskier investments to lose access to the capital needed to support growth.
Technical Signal to Demand Attention
Beyond the political chaos, Bitcoin is faced with a purely technical challenge that has a trader’s edge. The CME Futures market has created an important gap at $89.4K which historically tends to be a magnet for price action. These gaps are caused by the fact that Bitcoin’s spot market still trades during CME’s weekend closures, which presents price discontinuities upon the reopening of futures markets.
Investors monitor the CME futures “gaps” at approximately $90600 and $88000 for potential retracements. There is a strong market narrative surrounding the filling of CME futures gaps because, historically, Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps very quickly (within 1-7 days). Since the 2023 approval of spot Bitcoin ETF’s, gap fill significance has increased dramatically because many institutional trading desks using CME Futures to hedge their ETF exposure create additional links between the two markets.
Market Positioning and Liquidity Issue
The existing market structure shows a shaky equilibrium of accumulation and distribution. On-chain data indicates that BTC has exceeded centralized exchanges because it is leaving long-term holders at a rate of about 20,000 BTC in recent weeks although institutional flows are currently mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced mixed demand trends going into 2026, with some days of heavy inflows of over $450 million and some heavy outflows.
The Kingfisher trading platform has identified another issue: significant build-ups in long liquidations at the $88,000 threshold. Too many leveraged long positions clustered around this price point could be liquidated simultaneously if Bitcoin falls through key support levels. This would provide for a rapid increase in the downward momentum toward the CME gap.
Conclusion
Analysts believe numerous variables could cause Bitcoin trading volatility in early 2026. The closeness of a political uncertainty connected to a January 31, 2026, deadline and the $89,000 CME GAP constitute “a perfect storm” for volatility, economists say. Thus, traders will also watch Washington DC events and Bitcoin technical developments as longer-term holders consider self-custody and institutional investors become overly concerned for their financial well-being.
