PANews 12月20日消息，据金十报道，招商银行发布研报称，12月19日，日央行加息25bp，将政策利率上调至0.75%。尽管日央行大概率在加息节奏上保持高度克制，但日元流动性逆转及日债市场仍将对全球金融条件形成压制。一是日元套息交易可能持续性逆转，对全球资产流动性形成长期压制。截至2024年末，仍有约$9万亿头寸以低息日元为流动性来源，未来该部分流动性或随美日利差收窄稳步收缩。二是日债风险可能进一步发酵。从短期看，高市早苗政府批准了相当于名义GDP2.8%的补充财政预算，从长期看，日本计划将国防开支提升至名义GDP的3%，以及永久减免消费税。日本政府不合时宜的财政扩张立场可能引发市场更大的担忧，中长期日债收益率或陡峭上行，曲线加速陡峭化。
招商银行：日元套息交易可能持续性逆转，对全球资产流动性形成长期压制
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