U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of $148.7 million, ending a nine-session net inflow streak totaling about $3.1 billion. U.S. Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows that day, while Citi raised its 12-month BTC and ETH targets and forecast about $5 billion in inflows over the next year.
Fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed sharply after consecutive days of net inflows. The latest data show the products recorded a single-day net outflow of $148.7 million, ending a nine-session streak of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion. This was the first time the streak was interrupted by a single-day net outflow. On the same trading day, U.S. Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows. The two major mainstream crypto spot ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum, shifted in tandem at the fund-flow level, with crypto asset ETFs overall showing net outflows for the day.
Before this net outflow, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had maintained net inflows for nine straight sessions, with a cumulative total of about $3.1 billion. The multi-day positive inflows were viewed by market participants as one indicator of incremental capital entering the Bitcoin market and provided support for market sentiment in the short to medium term. From the perspective of trend continuity, the latest single-day net outflow of $148.7 million is relatively limited compared with the cumulative net inflow of about $3.1 billion, but its significance lies in interrupting the previous inflow rhythm rather than expanding on an existing net outflow. This was the first interruption of the streak and therefore attracted more short-term attention.
Spot ETF flows are affected by subscription and redemption activity, and single-day data is inherently volatile; its signal value is more about trend continuity. The shift from net inflows to net outflows directly affects BTC market sentiment. U.S. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows on the same trading day. Because funds exited Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs simultaneously, fund flows did not diverge that day but shifted overall. ETF flows are often used to observe short-term changes in institutional preferences; the synchronized outflow occurred just as the Bitcoin ETF ended its consecutive net inflow streak, further reinforcing the observation that short-term fund sentiment has weakened. This conclusion is a short-term analysis of single-day flow data.
At the institutional level, Citi raised its 12-month target prices for BTC and ETH and expects about $5 billion in inflows over the next year. Citi cited the recovery of ETF inflows and macro-level support as reasons. The material did not disclose specific target price values. As a leading institution, Citi's bullish view has a significant impact on market expectations and fund sentiment. This judgment is a medium-term expectation on a 12-month horizon, contrasting with the short-term fund action reflected by the single-day ETF net outflow: short-term data point to an adjustment in the pace of flows, while institutional expectations point to a return of funds over a longer horizon.
From an observation-cycle perspective, the two sets of information do not directly conflict. The single-day net outflow and the interruption of consecutive net inflows describe short-term fund changes that have already occurred; Citi's 12-month target prices and the expected inflow of about $5 billion are medium-term judgments that require verification by future actual data. Short-term single-day data is not enough to directly refute or confirm the medium-term expectation, but the end of the nine-day net inflow streak means the previously relatively stable pace of incremental funds has been broken. Whether net inflows can quickly resume will determine whether this change is a phased fluctuation or a directional reversal. This judgment needs to be confirmed by subsequent fund-flow data, rather than drawing an early conclusion based on single-day data.
Going forward, it is necessary to continue tracking daily fund-flow data for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs to observe whether this single-day net outflow continues and whether a consecutive net inflow trend is re-established. In particular, whether consecutive net inflows can be re-established depends on whether fund direction turns positive again in the following several trading days, rather than whether the single-day net inflow scale immediately expands. At the same time, whether Citi's projected inflow of about $5 billion over the next year materializes needs to be verified in light of actual changes in ETF fund flows and the macro environment. How BTC and ETH price performance and market sentiment respond to this shift in fund flows is also a key focus for the next stage.
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