BTC's weekly close has returned above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, with Galaxy's head of research calling it confirmation of the bear market bottom. On-chain OTC platform bitcoin reserves have fallen to 123,000 BTC, an all-time low, reflecting reduced over-the-counter selling pressure. The two data points come from technical analysis and on-chain supply respectively, and the market is watching their implications.
The bitcoin market has seen two notable data developments. First, BTC's weekly close has returned above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a signal Galaxy's head of research regards as key technical confirmation of the bear market bottom. Second, on-chain OTC platform bitcoin reserves have dropped to 123,000 BTC, an all-time low, indicating weakened selling pressure in the over-the-counter market. These two changes come from the technical side and the on-chain supply side respectively, offering two reference dimensions for assessing the state of the bitcoin market. This report focuses on these two data shifts, examining them from the technical signal and on-chain supply signal perspectives.
Starting with the technical side, BTC's weekly close has reclaimed the 50-week moving average after 45 weeks. The 45-week interval means the price has returned above the 50-week MA after an extended period, a fact cited by Galaxy's head of research as a key technical signal confirming the bear market bottom. This assessment directly incorporates the relationship between BTC's weekly close and the 50-week MA into the framework for observing market cycle positioning. According to the relevant remarks, this signal could directly affect market sentiment and the path ahead. Therefore, BTC's weekly close moving back above the 50-week MA is not merely a technical change but also an important reference for future market observation. Attention to technical bottom signals has increased accordingly, with the position of the 50-week MA and its sustainability becoming key technical indicators for tracking BTC's next move. From a time perspective, the 45-week gap itself is noteworthy: the price reclaiming the 50-week MA means the previous long stretch of weekly closes below that average has ended.
Turning to the on-chain supply side, bitcoin reserves on OTC platforms have continued to decline, reaching 123,000 BTC, a historical low. The drop in OTC platform reserves directly reflects reduced over-the-counter selling, with the amount of bitcoin available for sale in the OTC market clearly shrinking and the associated selling pressure easing. Compared with periods of higher reserves, the historical low indicates a significant contraction in OTC sell-side supply. This change is not isolated but the result of a sustained decline in OTC platform bitcoin reserves, showing that the supply available for sale in the OTC market has been gradually decreasing. As an important gauge of OTC supply, the downward trend in OTC platform reserves offers meaningful insight for market participants assessing seller pressure.
The historically low OTC platform reserves also carry additional supply-side implications. Relevant on-chain signals suggest that when OTC platform reserves are low, subsequent buying demand may shift to the open market. In other words, if new buying demand cannot be satisfied in the OTC market, it may move to public exchanges. This shift is viewed as a key on-chain signal pointing to tightening bitcoin supply, meaning the degree of supply tightness could become one of the market's focal points ahead. The new all-time low of 123,000 BTC is therefore not just a stock figure; it corresponds to both lower OTC supply and the possible relocation of buying demand. If buying demand does shift to the open market, the bitcoin supply landscape may face further changes, and this process warrants continued monitoring.
Looking at the relationship between the two data changes, one comes from technical analysis and one from on-chain data, yet both point to key variables in the bitcoin market. BTC's weekly close reclaiming the 50-week MA is seen by Galaxy's head of research as key technical confirmation of the bear market bottom; the drop in OTC platform reserves to 123,000 BTC indicates reduced selling pressure from the OTC supply side and the potential for future buying demand to shift to the open market. The two data points provide different perspectives on the state of the bitcoin market. For market participants, the coexistence of a technical trend signal and an on-chain supply tightness signal means both market sentiment and the supply-demand structure deserve further observation. Together, the two data points form the backdrop for assessing the bitcoin market.
Looking ahead, the following threads are worth tracking: first, whether BTC's weekly close can hold above the 50-week MA, which directly corresponds to the trajectory implied by that signal; second, whether on-chain OTC platform bitcoin reserves remain at low levels or see new changes, which will determine whether the easing trend in OTC selling pressure continues; third, whether subsequent buying demand shifts to the open market as suggested by the relevant on-chain signal, and what impact that could have on the bitcoin supply structure. These threads all stem from the observation dimensions pointed to by the relevant data changes and can serve as key areas of focus for tracking market sentiment and direction.
