Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations for September 15th (Probability of Bill Announcement Clear tonight)

Today's ETH Intraday Strategy (September 15th): Precise strategies are provided by our internal community. For copy trading, please check my profile (QQ). Every trade is live-streamed with a very high win rate and high returns. There are no entry barriers to copy trading. Currently, ETH is trading between 2,476.64 and 2,542, which has now become resistance. Macroeconomic Factors and the Bill: The probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in September is approximately 92.4%, almost a certainty; the CLARITY bill requires 60 procedural votes, with a pass probability of approximately 30%. The combination of these two events will amplify volatility. Scenario A: Bill fails to pass + rate hike implemented (approximately 70% probability): Bearish. Consider a small short position if the price rebounds to 2,525-2,560 and encounters resistance, targeting the liquidation zone below 2,475-2,430-2,414. A break below $2,460 would open up further downside potential. Scenario B: Bill passes + rate hike implemented (approximately 20% probability): Short-term bullish. A breakout above 2,530 with significant volume and a sustained hold above that level could present a small long position. The target is 2,614; reduce the position by at least 50% if it reaches around 2,641. This is a news-driven market; quick entry and exit are advised. Risk management principles: 1. Single-direction position size ≤ 3%-5% of total capital; build positions and take profits in stages. 2. Strict stop-loss orders are crucial, as significant volatility occurs before and after data releases. 3. Key points: Senate vote around 2:15 AM the following day; FOMC decision on September 17th. It is recommended to reduce positions to a small level before the market closes on September 16th. 4. After the news release, wait 15-30 minutes to observe the market performance before making a decision to avoid chasing the first false breakout. Core principles: small positions, quick entry and exit, strict stop-loss orders. Today's focus is on the 2,550 resistance level; follow the trend if it breaks through.