The probability of the Clarity Act passing this year has dropped to 13%, with a procedural vote scheduled for September 15 in the Senate.

According to prediction market platform Polymarket, the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing and becoming law in 2026 is 13%, with related contract trading volume around $11.5 million, a significant decrease from the 82% market pricing in February. The US Senate plans to hold a procedural vote on the bill on September 15th. The motion to terminate debate to initiate the vote was introduced by Majority Leader John Thune and typically requires 60 votes. Prediction market platform Kalshi gives a 91% probability of a Senate vote before October 1st, with related market trading volume exceeding $1.25 million. The CLARITY Act proposes to establish a federal regulatory framework for the crypto market, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) solely regulating the spot digital commodities market, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) responsible for certain securities issuance and exchange activities. The bill still faces disagreements regarding conflicts of interest between officials and the crypto industry, stablecoin yields, and the protection of decentralized finance and non-custodial software developers. (Bitcoin.com News)