According to BlockBeats, on August 28, Polymarket trader "xm39," who had previously bet on the US invading Iran before 2027 and was also long on crude oil, began to simultaneously reduce his "war escalation" positions on both sides yesterday. He even reversed his position and went short on crude oil this morning.
Yesterday, its associated address 0x40f closed 175,900 long positions in WTI crude oil, with a transaction value of approximately $14.253 million, resulting in a loss of approximately $282,000. About two minutes later, "xm39" began to sell off war prediction positions on Polymarket.
1.1823 million units of the stock "The US will invade Iran before 2027" were sold through 50 transactions. At the time of the transactions, the implied probability in the market was approximately 14.1%, and approximately $166,700 was recovered. This sale represented approximately 75.5% of the position, leaving only 383,100 units remaining.
As of press time, the market implied probability of "the United States invading Iran before 2027" has further decreased to 12.5%. The remaining 383,100 Yes contracts have an average entry probability of approximately 23.28%, a current value of approximately $47,900, a floating loss of approximately $41,300, and a loss rate of 46.3%.
This morning, this address opened a total of 122,500 short contracts of CL, currently holding a short position of approximately $10.183 million with a leverage of 20 times, showing a floating profit of approximately $30,000, a return of approximately 5.9%, and a liquidation price of $93.09. It also placed 7 stop-loss orders between $83.522 and $84.001, covering approximately 91.3% of the current short position.
WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, mainly driven by easing expectations of US-Iran negotiations and renewed supply risks; however, oil prices are still down about 4.3% this week. The short position was established after the overnight rebound.
Previous report: Trader "xm39" predicted that crude oil would continue to rise and increased his position to $48 million.
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