The probability that "the AI bubble will burst this year" on Polymarket has fallen to 19%, a 5% decrease in 24 hours.

According to PPP's market prediction tool, the probability of an AI bubble bursting this year on Polymarket has fallen to 19%, a 5% decrease in 24 hours. The market will only settle as "Yes" if at least three major negative events occur in the AI industry within a specified period, and these events occur within the same 90-day window. Triggering conditions include: Nvidia (NVDA) stock price falling 50% from its all-time high, SOXX Semiconductor ETF falling 40% from its all-time high, OpenAI or Anthropic going bankrupt, OpenAI being acquired, H100 GPU rental prices falling below $1 for five consecutive days, and major AI hardware suppliers such as TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista Networks, or Super Micro Computer seeing their stock prices fall 50% from their all-time highs. Previously, it was reported that Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund sold its entire publicly traded stock portfolio due to liquidity pressures, with Citadel becoming the buyer. However, the market believes that this forced liquidation may accelerate the clearing of leverage in AI trading and serve as a signal for some investors that short-term risks in the AI sector have been released and the market may be stabilizing. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.