According to BlockBeats, on July 30th, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that Polymarket trader "xm39" placed a $803 position in a "Yes" position on the prediction that "the US will invade Iran before 2027." This morning, within approximately 6 hours, he completed 223 buy orders. This marks the first time he has heavily invested in a war and macro-geopolitical event, based on his historical 42 positions, 50 completed trades, and recent 500 activity logs.
As of press time, it currently holds a total of 806,700 units of Yes, with a holding cost of approximately $223,000, an average price of 27.63 cents, and a floating loss of approximately -4.12%.
Monitoring shows that the external wallet highly associated with "xm39" is a Hyperliquid trading address starting with 0x40f, which is currently the largest long position holder of WTI crude oil on the platform. This address also appears to be continuously betting on crude oil prices amid escalating war on Hyperliquid, marking the first time this address has opened a crude oil contract in nearly a year.
Yesterday, it added a total of 133,300 WTI crude oil contracts (CL), with a trading volume of approximately US$10.791 million and a weighted average trading price of US$80.93. Today, it further increased its net open interest by 2,581,300 contracts.
As of press time, the whale held 155,200 long positions in CL with a leverage of 20x, a position value of approximately $13.22 million, and an average entry price of $81.8. The position had a floating profit of approximately $510,500, representing a return of approximately 80.3%. As it continued to roll over its position, the liquidation price had been pushed up to $81.56, which was now below the entry price.
Fund flow data shows that today, the whale withdrew approximately $246,400 in four separate transactions to the 0x2000 system address (HyperEVM).
Its first $100,000 outflow occurred this morning, and about one minute later, "xm39" began to concentrate its buying on Polymarket. The net outflow of $246,400 is very close to the $222,200 it invested in the prediction market today.
Judging from the address association, operation time, and amount of funds, this portion of funds is highly consistent with the fact that it was used to bet on "the United States will invade Iran before 2027" after cross-chain.