Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for July 26

For those who want to copy my trades, please check my profile QQ. There are no entry barriers, and every trade is live-streamed. BTC Strategy: Resistance: 65,000–65,400; Support: 63,700–64,000. • Consider a small short position at the upper edge of the trading range (65,000–65,200), with a stop-loss above 65,500 and a target of 63,500–64,000. • Consider a small long position at the lower edge of the trading range (63,700–64,000), with a stop-loss below 63,200 and a target of 64,800–65,000. • Sunday's volume was low; be wary of false signals if a breakout occurs. Treat the market as range-bound before the FOMC meeting, and trade quickly. • Today's rally was mainly due to some easing in the US-Iran conflict, but the outcome is still uncertain. The specific direction will depend on subsequent agreements. --- III. ETH Strategy • Resistance: 1,900–1,920; Support: 1,850. • Short at 1900-1920, stop loss above 1950, target 1,850–1,800. • Long near 1,850, stop loss below 1,830, target 1,880–1,900. • ETH is generally weak; be cautious with long positions, use light positions, and take profits quickly. --- IV. Next Week's Fed (July 28–29) Probability Forecast • Current interest rate: 3.50%–3.75%. • Probability of no change: approximately 65% (all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change). • Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike: approximately 35% (significantly higher than 13% a week ago), mainly due to inflation concerns triggered by Brent crude oil breaking $100, and the new chairman's abolition of forward guidance adding uncertainty. • The market has fully priced in a September rate hike (82% probability). • The key is to see if the policy statement hints at action in September. Volatility will increase before the decision is made, so pay attention to risk control.