Polymarket reports that the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing by the end of August has risen to 21%.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning; the probability of it closing before September 30 once rose to 26%. Yemen's Houthi rebels, Ansar Allah, announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the "an eye for an eye" principle and aims to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The affected passage involves the transport of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The prediction contract result is determined based on maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is less than or equal to 10 on any date between market creation and expiration, the contract will be judged as "yes".