According to BlockBeats, on August 12th, citing sources from the US on the 11th, the US government has rescinded a directive banning the use of the short-video social media platform TikTok on federal government devices, citing that TikTok's US operations no longer pose a national security threat after restructuring. The report states that the White House Office of Management and Budget rescinded the 2023 directive in a memo on the 10th, which prohibited the use of TikTok on US federal government devices.

Previously, the U.S. Department of Justice issued a written opinion concluding that TikTok no longer falls under the category of regulated applications as defined by relevant laws. Since the end of 2022, the U.S. federal government and several states have banned the use of TikTok on government electronic devices under the pretext of "data security." (CCTV News)

According to BlockBeats, on August 12th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's current volatility has compressed to extremely low levels, and the market has not yet formed a clear direction. The Bollinger Band width is currently around 3.8% to 3.9%, one of the lowest levels in the past two years, while it was still in double digits in early July. He pointed out that a significant narrowing of the Bollinger Bands usually indicates that the market is entering a compression phase before volatility expansion, but this indicator itself cannot determine the direction of the next round of price movements.

In terms of trend strength, the Bitcoin ADX indicator has currently fallen to 11, close to its recent lows and significantly below the 25 threshold used by its model to confirm trends. TrendActive is still not active, and neither bullish nor bearish signals have appeared; the last directional signal in early July was bearish, but the current market structure no longer confirms this signal.

Adler stated that for the market to enter a new trend phase, the Bollinger Bands need to widen again from their current compressed state, and the ADX needs to rise above 25. The direction can then be determined by the relationship between +DI and -DI: if one leads by more than 5 points, it may trigger a corresponding bullish or bearish signal.

They believe that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, with both volatility and trend strength at low levels, and the risk of a false breakout in the short term remains. The current structure increases the likelihood of significantly increased volatility in the future, but it is still impossible to determine whether the price will ultimately break upwards or downwards.

According to BlockBeats, on August 12th, as the US July CPI was about to be released, the Federal Reserve's internal concerns about inflation intensified. Boston Fed President Collins explicitly stated that if future data indicated a need for further policy tightening, she was willing to support a rate hike in September; previously, officials such as Hamak, Logan, and Kashkari had also expressed support for more restrictive policies. This makes the expected 2.5% year-on-year increase and 0.2% month-on-month increase in July's core CPI not merely simple inflation data, but a crucial test directly related to whether policy space can be maintained in September.

The prevailing economist forecast is that core CPI will fall from 2.6% year-on-year to 2.5%, while the monthly increase will rise from 0% to 0.2%. If the data meets expectations, it indicates that inflation is still slowly cooling, but it is still significantly away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. If the monthly or year-on-year increase exceeds expectations, it may further reinforce the Federal Reserve's concerns about "inflation remaining at a high level for too long." Especially given the recent significant slowdown in the job market, the Federal Reserve faces not simply the choice of raising or lowering interest rates, but rather how to prevent further deterioration of the labor market while preventing inflation from solidifying again.

Energy prices are making this task even more difficult. The EIA anticipates that related supply disruptions may continue until the end of 2026; meanwhile, Red Sea shipping risks remain, and Ukraine's attack on Russian energy transport facilities in the Black Sea has already affected CPC crude oil exports. This means that energy supply risks are no longer concentrated in a single region, but exist simultaneously in major energy transport hubs such as the Middle East, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea. If supply constraints persist, energy prices will not only directly push up fuel costs, but may also create a second round of inflationary pressure through transportation, manufacturing, and consumption prices.

This is also the most difficult part for the Federal Reserve to deal with right now: the job market has shown signs of cooling, but inflation is still above target, and there are new upside risks to energy supply. Collins even pointed out that low- and middle-income families have clearly felt the squeeze on the cost of living from energy prices, meaning that if energy prices continue to rise, it will simultaneously increase consumer spending pressure and the necessity for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy.

For financial markets, this amplifies the significance of the CPI. If core inflation meets mainstream expectations of 2.5% and 0.2%, the Fed can maintain a wait-and-see approach, but the high-interest-rate environment will not be quickly lifted. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a September rate hike and US Treasury yields may be repriced simultaneously, while energy supply risks could further slow the decline in inflation. Cryptocurrency ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $245 million in the past week and approximately $1.677 billion in the past month, but still experienced net outflows of approximately $6.898 billion in the past quarter, indicating that funds have not completely withdrawn from the crypto market, but are still in a state of short-term fund replenishment and medium-term capital contraction. Therefore, what truly affects highly valued and highly volatile assets going forward is not just whether the CPI is lower than expected, but whether inflation can continue to decline, and whether energy supply shocks will make this downward path even steeper again.