According to BlockBeats, on June 26, the U.S. Treasury Department will repurchase $2 billion of its own debt on June 25, 2026. This repurchase targets Treasury bonds maturing between 2046 and 2056 and aims to improve liquidity in the bond market.

Some analysts point out that the total bid amounted to $21.3 billion, but only $2 billion was accepted, which is a sign of weak demand, but the scale is extremely small relative to the overall US debt.

According to BlockBeats, on June 26, analyst alicarts reported that Bitcoin's apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days, recently dropping to -273,000 BTC, indicating that the accumulation phase has stalled for seven months.

The apparent demand metric measures actual spot demand by comparing newly issued Bitcoins from miners with existing inventory flow. A negative value reflects that older supply is entering the market faster than it is being absorbed by buyers. When apparent demand is negative, it means that a large amount of older supply is entering circulation at a rate faster than the spot market can absorb it. This mismatch indicates that selling pressure exceeds new capital inflows, creating significant upward resistance in the price.

According to BlockBeats, on June 26th, the US May PCE data met market expectations, with overall PCE rising 4.1% year-on-year and core PCE rising 3.4% year-on-year. While the data did not further push up inflation expectations, it also did not provide any reason to support an interest rate cut. Market focus therefore quickly shifted from the data itself to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, especially after Waller continued to downplay forward guidance. Funds continued to focus on the possibility of "high interest rates remaining for longer" rather than waiting for a policy shift.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced this expectation. Williams acknowledged that inflation returning to 2% may be delayed until 2028, and Goolsby also believes core inflation remains high and supports avoiding providing a clear interest rate path. Meanwhile, the continued strength of the US dollar, the passing of stress tests by all major US banks, and the ongoing capital inflows into the AI industry have all contributed to global funds remaining in dollar assets rather than betting on an easing cycle in advance.

On the other hand, risks in the Middle East have not been completely eliminated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has again taken a hard line on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on merchant ships and disputes over strait management indicate that the ceasefire agreement is still subject to change. Although crude oil exports and shipping have not yet been substantially impacted, the market has begun to reassess the uncertainties in the energy supply chain and their potential impact on future inflation.

For the crypto market, the real focus now is no longer on a single inflation figure, but rather on whether dollar liquidity continues to be absorbed by the high-interest-rate environment. As the market gradually accepts that the Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to ease policy in the short term, the pace of valuation recovery for risk assets may still be limited. In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate around risk appetite, the strength of the dollar, and overall liquidity changes. The market still needs to pay attention to the impact of changes in macroeconomic policy expectations on crypto asset market sentiment.

According to BlockBeats, on June 26, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that all Ethereum whales are now experiencing paper losses, including three groups: those with 1k-10k ETH (-0.26), 10k-100k ETH (-0.21), and 100k+ ETH (-0.05). This is the first time this has happened since 2019. Notably, even during the 2022 bear market, the largest whale group remained profitable.

Data shows that whales’ unrealized profit margins have turned negative and have remained so for several weeks. Darkfost believes this situation tests whales’ conviction and has historically marked the bottom of the market.