Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, published an article on its X platform analyzing over 20,000 Polymarket markets over the past six months and ranking them by volatility. Key findings include: - Cryptocurrency-related markets occupy four of the top ten spots, indicating high information asymmetry and few truly accurate predictions. - Deadline anxiety is prevalent; questions involving "Will X occur before [date]?" generate more volatility than "Who will win?". - Market outcomes tend to be "yes"—the probability of a "yes" outcome is 50% in markets above $1 million, compared to only 27% overall; when the market experiences significant volatility, the final outcome is more often "yes." - Mid-sized markets ($1 million to $7 million) are in a chaotic range; markets above $10 million show more stable price movements due to large capital inflows.

A new paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale University, reported by Odaily, indicates that the accuracy of market predictions is primarily driven not by "collective intelligence," but by a small number of informed traders. The study shows that only about 3% of accounts contribute significantly to price discovery and are more effective at predicting outcomes, responding to news, and improving market pricing accuracy. The paper also points out that the majority of other participants contribute the majority of trading volume, but have limited information, and their trading losses often flow to informed traders. The research concludes that the accuracy of market predictions is more a reflection of the "wisdom of the informed minority."

According to data from SoSoValue, the crypto market as a whole is trending upwards on April 27th, with the RWA sector performing particularly well, rising 4.81% in the last 24 hours. Specifically, Pendle (PENDLE) rose 7.39%, Centrifuge (CFG) rose 7.17%, Ondo Finance (ONDO) and Keeta (KTA) rose 5.44% and 5.89% respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.36%, breaking through $79,000; Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.50%, approaching $2,400. Notably, MAG7.ssi rose 1.98%, DEFI.ssi rose 3.02%, and MEME.ssi rose 2.19%. Other notable sectors include: NFTs (up 3.85% in 24 hours, with Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) up 13.10%); DeFi (up 3.74%, with Lido DAO (LDO) up 23.71%); AI (up 3.56%, with OriginTrail (TRAC) up 12.00%); and other sectors such as Meme (up 2.13%, with SPX6900 (SPX) up 9.79%); PayFi (up 1.97%, with SafePal (SFP) up 9.89%); Layer 2 (up 1.89%, with Celestia (TIA) up 4.03%); Layer 1 (up 1.50%, with Algorand (ALGO) up 4.16%); and CeFi (up 1.23%, with NEXO (NEXO) up 1.88%). The crypto sector indices, which reflect the historical performance of the sector, show that the ssiRWA, ssiNFT, and ssiDeFi indices rose by 6.37%, 4.24%, and 3.49%, respectively.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, IcoBeast.eth, head of the Kalshi crypto section, posted on the X platform refuting previous data from Blockchain Capital partner Spencer Bogart, which stated that Kalshi's trading volume exceeded $13 billion in March, while Polymarket's trading volume was only about $9.5 billion in the same month. This data contradicts previous claims. For further discussion, please contact him directly or the Kalshi team. He also mentioned that Blockchain Capital is one of Polymarket's investors. Previous report: Blockchain Capital partner: Polymarket's non-sports category trading volume in March was $7.5 billion, while Kalshi's year-on-year figure was only $1.6 billion.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket's official developer account, Polymarket Developers, announced on the X platform that the exchange upgrade will go live on April 28th at 11:00 AM UTC (7:00 PM Beijing time), with an estimated downtime of about one hour. The V1 order book will be cleared, and all open limit orders will be cancelled, ensuring the safety of funds and positions. Users trading via API need to update to the latest SDK beforehand; the v1 client will cease operation after the switch.