According to BlockBeats, on August 4th, Serenity cited Digitimes supply chain sources as saying that SK Hynix, Micron (MU), and Samsung Electronics' 2027 DRAM and HBM production capacity is sold out, and customers can currently only obtain about 60% to 70% of their initial demand.

Serenity stated that the current tightness in storage supply is exceeding market expectations, and 2027 may see the "most severe storage shortage phase." Meanwhile, annual NAND capacity from SanDisk (SNDK), Samsung Electronics, and Micron has already been booked, while Kioxia and SK Hynix are expected to complete capacity allocation by August 2026.

Serenity points out that although some market views previously predicted a storage surplus by mid-2027, the current supply chain situation shows that major storage manufacturers have already sold out their capacity ahead of schedule, and the supply and demand relationship remains tight.

It is understood that the capacity allocation between manufacturers and customers has been largely determined, but the final product price will still be determined based on market conditions closer to delivery. The continued development of AI infrastructure is driving demand for HBM and high-end DRAM, which may become a significant factor in future memory supply shortages.

According to BlockBeats, on August 4th, Lookonchain monitored that the whale address 0x2e80 withdrew another 19,000 ETH from Gemini, worth approximately $35.44 million, and subsequently staked them.

Over the past three weeks, this address has withdrawn a total of 112,000 ETH from Gemini, worth approximately $208 million, all of which has been used for staking.

According to BlockBeats, on August 4th, a set of key earnings reports will be released for US chip stocks this week. AMD will release its second-quarter results after the US market closes on Tuesday, August 4th (Eastern Time), while SanDisk and Western Digital will release their fourth-quarter and full-year results after the US market closes on Wednesday, August 5th (Eastern Time).

The importance of these three earnings reports lies not only in the performance of individual companies. After a sharp decline in AI hardware stocks in July, the market was looking for evidence of a potential recovery in chip stocks. Last week, earnings reports from cloud providers such as Microsoft and Amazon alleviated concerns about the return on AI capital expenditures, and the performance of memory supply chain companies like Samsung and Micron reignited sentiment in the sector. During Thursday's recovery, Micron surged 18%, SanDisk rose 26%, and Lam Research climbed 18%, with chip stocks briefly driving the market rebound.

AMD faces its first major challenge. The market is currently focused on AMD's two growth drivers: EPYC server CPUs and AI accelerators. Analysts expect AMD's second-quarter revenue to be approximately $11.3 billion, including approximately $6.5 billion in data center revenue, comprising approximately $4 billion in server chip revenue and $2.5 billion in AI-related revenue; adjusted EPS is expected to be approximately $1.62. Investopedia, citing Visible Alpha data, reports that the market expects AMD's second-quarter revenue to be approximately $11.34 billion, a 48% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $1.61, more than three times that of the same period last year.

The real highlight of AMD's earnings report lies in its guidance. Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis is optimistic about AMD's next-generation Venice server CPUs and the Helios rack-mount AI system based on the MI450 GPU. Customers such as OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and Anthropic are seen by the market as potential sources of demand for Helios. Initial shipments may begin in the third quarter, but the greater revenue contribution will come from the fourth quarter onwards.

The options market is also experiencing significant pricing volatility: Investopedia reports that traders are betting that AMD's stock price could fluctuate by about 10% this week following its earnings report. This means that simply meeting consensus expectations may not be enough; the market needs to see AI GPU orders, customer adoption progress, and further upward revisions to Q3 guidance.

SanDisk is a high-beta stock in the storage chain market. The company will release its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on August 5th and hold its investor day on August 13th. Benzinga data shows that Wall Street expects SanDisk's fourth-quarter EPS to be $33.38 and revenue to be $8.24 billion; the company previously gave revenue guidance of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and EPS guidance of $30 to $33. In other words, market expectations are close to or even slightly higher than the upper limit of the company's guidance.

This sets a high bar for SanDisk's earnings reports. Zacks points out that SanDisk's average EPS exceeded expectations by 68.29% over the past two quarters, with a current Earnings ESP of +4.13%. Zacks' rating of #1 Strong Buy suggests that analysts are still betting on the company's potential to continue exceeding expectations. However, high expectations also mean greater volatility. While SanDisk remains in a long-term upward trend, it has recently retreated from its highs, indicating weakening technical momentum. The market will focus on NAND prices, enterprise-grade SSD demand, gross margins, and whether the investor day on August 13th will provide a stronger long-term growth framework.

Western Digital's logic is slightly different; it's more like a robust validation of the storage demand in AI data centers. Benzinga data shows that Western Digital's consensus estimate for Q4 is $3.27 EPS and $3.69 billion revenue; Zacks previously gave an EPS estimate of $3.34 and revenue of $3.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately **101%** and 42%, respectively. The company's Q3 report released in April showed Q4 revenue guidance of $3.65 billion plus or minus $100 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin expected to be 51%-52%, and EPS of $3.25 plus or minus $0.15.

Western Digital's key lies in the demand for high-capacity HDDs and cloud data centers. In its Q3 earnings report, management emphasized that AI training, inference, Agentic AI, and Physical AI all generate data that needs long-term storage, which forms the basis of HDD demand. If Western Digital continues to demonstrate revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and strong free cash flow in Q4, the market will see this as evidence that AI storage demand is still spreading.

Overall, AMD's earnings report will answer the question of whether AI computing power orders can be revised upwards, SanDisk's will answer whether NAND/Flash price increases and the booming enterprise-grade SSD market can support high valuations, and Western Digital's will answer whether AI data center storage demand can be stably translated into profit margins. If all three earnings reports hold up, this rebound in chip stocks will be more like a fundamental recovery; if any of these companies provides conservative guidance, the shadow left by the valuation correction in July may soon return.

According to BlockBeats, on August 4th, the US Treasury market recently released signs of tension. The approximately $30 trillion US Treasury market is showing signs of rapidly rising long-term yields and increased volatility, raising concerns that pressure in the bond market may further spread to risky assets such as stocks.

Data shows that in the last week of July, long-term US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007 and the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through its trading range of the past two years.

The market believes that rising yields reflect investors' reassessment of the Federal Reserve's commitment to combating inflation. Recent internal divisions within the Fed, with three regional Fed presidents voting in favor of raising interest rates, have fueled market concerns about uncertainty regarding the future path of interest rates.

As bond market volatility increases, the MOVE index, a measure of US Treasury volatility, has risen to its highest level since May. Demand for put options related to long-term US Treasury ETFs has increased significantly, as traders are using the options market to hedge risks in advance.

Analysts point out that persistently high US Treasury yields could increase global financing costs and put pressure on stock market valuations. Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, said the market is struggling to predict how long the stock market can maintain current interest rate levels.

Furthermore, the recent joint intervention in the yen by the United States and Japan has also raised market concerns about the stability of US Treasury bonds. Analysts believe that the US hopes to help Japan stabilize its exchange rate while preventing a large-scale sell-off of US Treasury bonds by Japan from impacting the bond market.

The market will focus on the U.S. Treasury's financing plans, economic data, and the July non-farm payroll report. Traders believe the core issue for the market right now is whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its tightening stance and whether long-term interest rate pressures will further spread to risk assets.