Expert Says XRP to $50 by December 2025 Is a Matter of “Math + Market Structure,” Here’s Why

Veteran Bitcoin investor Pumpius argues that if the SEC clears all pending spot XRP ETFs in October, the conditions could align for XRP to hit $50 by the end of 2025. He pointed out that at least six major issuers have already submitted active S-1 filings or amendments with the SEC. These include Bitwise, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton. According to Pumpius, the timing of these filings, following the SEC’s dismissal of its case against Ripple, suggests that issuers are preparing for a serious launch window. October Is the Key Decision Window The SEC’s current review calendar places multiple XRP ETF applications in a decision cluster around late October 2025. Pumpius notes that this creates a potential “all-green” or “all-red” moment. Should approvals come through, ETF launches could begin rolling out in Q4, setting the stage for institutional money to enter XRP at scale. Demand Shock Incoming Industry insiders project that first-month spot XRP ETF inflows will exceed $5 billion. According to commentators, this level of demand could significantly strain the asset’s supply. Notably, about 35 billion XRP is in escrow, and a large portion of the circulating supply is in the hands of exchanges and major holders. In other words, the effective free float is thin. Pumpius highlights that this creates conditions for “air-pocket” price moves if billions of dollars in new demand suddenly enter the market. Institutional Infrastructure Already Set for XRP Furthermore, he said XRP’s path mirrors Bitcoin and Ethereum’s trajectory before their ETF approvals. Both CME and Coinbase Derivatives launched XRP futures earlier in 2025, creating regulated liquidity channels for institutions. Combined with ETFs, this setup will funnel institutional capital into the asset, according to the Bitcoin investor. Why $50 XRP Is Plausible Pumpius argues that ETF-driven inflows of $10–18 billion by year-end 2025 could force extreme price elasticity, as the market adjusts to clear demand against limited liquid supply. Beyond pure demand mechanics, ETFs open access for RIAs, wealth managers, pensions, and treasuries—turning sidelined capital into compliant, daily-settled spot exposure. According to Pumpius, the result could be a cycle where inflows boost price, which in turn attracts larger inflows. In Pumpius’ view, if all XRP ETFs receive approval in October, the path to $50 by December 2025 is not speculative hype but a logical outcome of supply mechanics, institutional infrastructure, and market structure. “In that setup,” he concludes, “$50 stops being a meme and becomes a path, not a promise.” https://twitter.com/pumpius/status/1963189705572520067 Meanwhile, XRP is trading at $2.80 today, and the road to $50 requires 1,685% growth. The magnitude of this required growth has led many commentators on Pumpius's post to express disagreement with his perspective. They argue that the timeline is too short for the XRP market to expand from $168 billion to $3 trillion.