Crypto Holds High Ground As Macro Tailwinds Meet Pre-CPI Positioning

Key Takeaways

• Crypto enters CPI day at significant price zones for BTC and ETH, with ETH’s breakout above $4K fueling a broad risk-on tone.
• Institutional positioning remains net long, although ETF MVRV’s rise to 2.43 points to elevated unrealized profits and potential profit-taking risk. ETF flow resilience and on-chain accumulation signal structural demand remains intact, even if short-term volatility spikes post-data.
• On-chain and derivatives data confirm seller exhaustion and measured re-leveraging, but CPI is now the critical short-term trigger.