Well-Timed Rotations – Altcoin Gains Locked In, BTC Rebalance Pays Off

Performance Recap (Friday 9 May → Thursday 16 May)

Asset	Positioning	9-May Price	16-May Price	Change	Verdict
BTC	Overweight → Reinforced	$103,750	$104,000	+0.2%	✅ Rebalancing into BTC preserved gains
ETH	Overweight → Trimmed	$2,250	$2,600	+15.6%	✅ Altcoin rally captured, trimming well-timed
SOL	Overweight → Trimmed	$164	$172.5	+5.2%	✅ Partial trim reduced downside exposure

What We Got Right ✅

➕ Perfectly Timed Altcoin Overweight and Rotation
We increased exposure to ETH and SOL just ahead of their breakout moves, capturing significant outperformance. Our positioning shift came early in the week — exactly when the rally took off — and trimming exposure before volatility hit allowed us to lock in strong gains.

➕ Rebalancing Into BTC Ahead of Altcoin Pullback
As institutional inflows slowed and technical momentum began to fade, we rotated into Bitcoin — which went on to outperform ETH and SOL during the correction. The shift added stability and helped protect gains.

➕ Strong Anticipation of Macro and Sentiment Shift
Our read of cooling flows, weakening alt momentum, and elevated market positioning led to a more defensive allocation just as the market entered a consolidation phase.

What We Got Wrong ❌

❌ Global Exposure Could Have Been Higher
While our allocation shifts were well-timed, keeping 15% in cash limited total upside. We prioritized optionality and risk management over maximum exposure — a cautious stance that slightly capped performance.

✅ Still Outperformed Benchmark
Despite holding back some capital, our heavy altcoin overweight and timely trims enabled us to outperform our market-cap-weighted benchmark. Our tactical calls on both the entry and exit sides of the altcoin rally were well executed.

Key Lessons

? Nailing The Right Tokens Matters More Than Full Exposure
The success of this week’s performance shows that choosing the right exposure to overweight and trim can beat full exposure.

? Rotation Readiness Is Critical
Having a flexible framework to shift between altcoins and BTC allowed us to preserve gains and avoid unnecessary drawdowns.

? Cash Is a Position
Our elevated cash position didn’t drag as much as expected — it provided optionality and firepower to redeploy if markets had turned sharply.

Final Takeaway

This week validated our tactical approach. We increased altcoin exposure early, trimmed near local highs, and rotated into Bitcoin before it regained leadership — all while maintaining a flexible cash buffer. While full exposure might’ve added some upside, our strategy balanced risk and return effectively.

With the market now showing signs of cooling momentum, we remain positioned for resilience, ready to rotate again when the setup improves.

Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.