The Clarity Act has a 15% chance of passing in 2026, and could face a procedural vote in the Senate as early as September 15.

According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed and signed by the president in 2026 is 15%, with related contract trading volume estimated at $11.62 million. Kalshi data shows that the probability of this bill, or other eligible crypto market structure bills, becoming law by July 1, 2027, is 30%, and by January 1, 2028, it is 50%. During his testimony at a hearing on September 2, French Hill, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, listed the House passage of the CLARITY Act as a committee achievement, stating that Republican committee members are pushing to enshrine related reforms into law, making financial rules long-term and predictable. The US Senate schedule indicates that the motion to end debate on HR 3633 is expected to enter the voting stage as early as 2:15 PM on September 15, typically requiring 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee passed the bill on May 14 with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. Subsequent revisions will address the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), consumer protection, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary regulation, and disclosure requirements. (Bitcoin.com News)