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On Polymarket, the probability of Gemini 4.0 being released before September 30th is currently listed at 35%, up 12% in the last 24 hours.

2026-09-01 12:39:30
Shareshare
According to PPP forecasting market tools, Polymarket currently reports a 35% probability of Gemini 4.0 being released before September 30th, a 12% increase in the last 24 hours. If Google makes the Gemini 4.0 Flash model publicly available before the listed date, the event will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No." For a "Yes" rating, Gemini 4.0 must be officially released and made publicly available, including public testing or an open rolling waitlist; closed testing or private access does not count. Gemini 4.0 must be explicitly released under this name or be recognized as the successor to Gemini 3. Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, etc., do not meet these criteria. The rating is primarily based on official Google information and references credible media reports. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize opportunities.
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