The market is pricing in a 74% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, multiple forecasting markets have reached a consensus on pricing in the outcome of the Federal Reserve's September meeting: the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is approximately 74%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is approximately 25%, and the probability of a rate cut is close to 1%. Polymarket's related contract trading volume is $33.9 million; Kalshi, an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of maintaining the current rate, with related bets approaching $10 million. Myriad, a forecasting platform operated by Dastan, shows an approximately 71% probability of this option. The Fed's July meeting voted 9-3 to maintain interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members supporting a rate hike. The FOMC will meet on September 15-16, and the statement is scheduled to be released on September 16; a survey shows that nearly 70% of economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)