Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 12 (Pay close attention to the 20:30 CPI data)

Currently, BTC is at 63,737.0 USDT (-0.44%), and ETH is at 1,883.91 USDT (+0.32%). The market is consolidating, awaiting tonight's CPI data. --- Tonight at 20:30, the US July CPI is expected (based on data from Jinshi Data and mainstream surveys): · Overall CPI YoY: Expected 3.4% (Previous 3.5%) · Core CPI YoY: Expected 2.5% (Previous 2.6%) · Both are expected to rise moderately month-on-month, with a high degree of market consensus. --- Three Scenarios and Their Impact on BTC/ETH Scenario Probability BTC Reaction ETH Reaction Lower Than Expected (≤3.2%) ~25% Bullish, BTC breaks through 65,000, targeting 65,700 ETH rises in tandem to 1,920+ In Line with Expectations (3.3%-3.5%) ~55% Oscillating, oscillating between 63,500 and 64,900, ETH 1,870-1,910 Higher Than Expected (≥3.6%) ~20% Bearish, BTC retraces to around 62,200, ETH falls towards 1,820 Probability Basis: Reuters/Bloomberg consensus is concentrated, Calci's market prediction shows only a 15% probability of being higher than 3.4%, oil price rebound poses upside risk. --- Summary High probability (55%) In line with expectations, the market remains volatile; if there are unexpected deviations, it may break the multi-week consolidation. Significant price spikes are expected before and after the data release. Our internal community provides precise entry points in advance. For trading advice, please check my profile QQ. There are no barriers to entry for following our advice.