On Polymarket, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by July 24th has fallen to 36%, a 15% drop in the last 24 hours.

PPP forecasting market tool monitoring shows that the probability of a "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, a 15% decrease in 24 hours. This event will be settled as "Yes" if the US does not take any defined military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will be "No". Eligible military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks directly targeting Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale firefights, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions. If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will be adjudicated after consensus is reached through official information and credible media; if disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all information available at that time. Settlement is based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.