Polymarket's probability that "Trump will agree to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June" has risen to 87%, up 12% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of "Trump agreeing to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June" on Polymarket has risen to 87%, a 12% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are as follows: if the United States agrees to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, it will be considered "Yes"; otherwise, it will be considered "No". Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refer to restrictions imposed by the United States on the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The United States is deemed to have agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: 1. Trump or another authorized representative of the U.S. government publicly announces that the United States has finally agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil; 2. The lifting, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is incorporated into a formal treaty or agreement between the United States and Iran, including treaties or agreements reached through signing or other formal means. Trump posted on social media today: "A deal with Iran is in place. Congratulations! I hereby authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!" Odaily Seer, the Prophet Channel, continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.