SpaceX IPO expectations are rising, and SPCX contracts on HyperLiquid are rebounding, pointing to a valuation of $2.4 trillion.

According to Huoxun Finance, the SPCX cryptocurrency derivative contract related to the SpaceX IPO rebounded on the decentralized exchange HyperLiquid, as market expectations for SpaceX's performance on its first day of trading have heated up again. Data shows that the SPCX contract traded between $176 and $183 on Friday, after falling to around $153 earlier this week, a significant rebound from Wednesday's level of around $157. Currently, the contract has an open interest of approximately $216 million, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million. SPCX is a cash-settled derivative and does not represent holding SpaceX stock, placement rights, or corporate equity. However, given that SpaceX's IPO price was set at $135 per share, the contract is considered an important reference point for the market to gauge investors' expectations for the opening price on the first day of trading. Based on the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a premium of approximately 36% for SpaceX's first day of trading. Previously, in May, the contract rose to $216, corresponding to a premium of approximately 60% over the IPO price; earlier this week, when it fell to $157, the market expected the premium to narrow to approximately 16%. Other informal market signals also indicate a recovery in investor expectations. Related derivatives data shows the market implies a SpaceX valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion, more than 35% higher than the approximately $1.77 trillion valuation corresponding to the IPO pricing. Furthermore, Polymarket users currently give SpaceX a roughly 70% probability of closing with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion on its first day of trading. The SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% in recent weeks, reflecting traders' caution regarding SpaceX's IPO performance; the recent rebound suggests the market is re-indicating the potentially high valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO.