Polymarket's probability that "WTI crude oil will reach $100 in May 2026" has fallen to 1%, down 11% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of WTI crude oil reaching $100 in May 2026 on Polymarket has fallen to 1%, a 24-hour drop of 11%. The expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is spreading, and international oil prices quickly fell after news broke that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days. Brent crude oil prices dipped to around $91 per barrel, a cumulative drop of over 17% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since 2020; meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $87 per barrel. However, uncertainties remain regarding the details of the agreement, as Trump has not yet approved the relevant terms. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.