Polymarket's probability that "WTI crude oil will fall to $95 in May 2026" has risen to 81%, up 8% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket predicting that WTI crude oil will fall to $95 in May 2026 rose to 88% this morning and is currently at 81%, up 8% in the last 24 hours. The event contract rules state that if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick chart for the active month of WTI crude oil futures during May 2026 is equal to or higher than the listed price, the market will declare it "yes"; otherwise, it will declare it "no." The price will be based on the price published by Polymarket, without rounding. Previously, the rules for the March WTI crude oil price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the current active month (near-month) of the CME crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price up to the last trading day of March 2026, the market will declare it "yes"; otherwise, it will declare it "no." Trump has pledged to safeguard ships in the Strait of Hormuz and announced "Project Freedom," which will help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting this week, and is actively negotiating with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command announced it would support "Operation Freedom," aimed at restoring freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and providing support for merchant ships seeking free passage through this vital international trade corridor. Odaily Seer continues to focus on predictive markets, seeing changes before pricing.