Polymarket's probability of "0 Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026" rises to 58%, up 9% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026 has risen to 58% on Polymarket, a 9% increase in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the "How many times will the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in 2026" prediction event has approached $22 million. The contract rules are as follows: settlement is based on the actual number of 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 (including any rate cuts at the December meeting). If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points after a single meeting, it will be considered two rate cuts (25 basis points each). Emergency rate cuts outside of regular FOMC meetings will also be counted in the total number of rate cuts in 2026. The market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If the specified number of rate cuts is not achieved, the market will settle early as "No". Following the release of US economic data today, US interest rate futures data shows a slight increase in market expectations for a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.