Polymarket's probability of Powell stepping down from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has dropped to 9%, a 25% decrease in the past 24 hours.

According to data from Polymarket, the probability of Jerome Powell stepping down as a Federal Reserve Governor before May 30th has fallen to 9%, a 25% decrease from 24 hours ago; the probability of him stepping down before December 31st has dropped to 66%, an 11% decrease from 24 hours ago. The forecast contract's rules state: if Fed Chairman Powell ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on that day, the result is "yes"; otherwise, it is "no." Even if he retains his position as a Governor, he does not meet the "yes" condition. The determination is based on official information from the US government, but consensus formed from credible reports can also be used. At a press conference this morning, Powell stated that he would continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor "for some time" after stepping down as Chairman and promised to "keep a low profile." US Treasury Secretary Bessant responded that it would be unusual for Powell to remain a Governor, and for someone who consistently emphasizes norms, such a unilateral decision contradicts traditional practices. Polymarket continuously tracks such dynamics through forecasting markets and reflects changes before pricing them in.