Gu Jingci: The US-Iran negotiations are not the result, but the process, especially for the crypto community! (Part Two)

Returning to the current issues, the probability of the US and Iran reaching a comprehensive and permanent agreement is very low (approximately 10%–15%), while the probability of reaching a limited temporary compromise (ceasefire + partial thawing) is relatively high (approximately 60%–70%), and the probability of talks breaking down and returning to full-scale confrontation is approximately 20%–30%. The current disagreements lie in the following: 1. The US demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment, achieve permanent denuclearization, and allow full inspections (Trump's "no backing down on red lines"), while Iran demands to retain peaceful nuclear rights, not abandon 60% enrichment, and opposes unlimited inspections. 2. The Strait of Hormuz issue: The US demands international waters, joint management, and a ban on tolls, while Iran hopes for Iranian control, the ability to charge tolls, and Iranian guarantees of security. 3. Sanctions and reparations: US: phased easing, no complete lifting, no reparations. Iran: immediate and complete lifting of sanctions, and war reparations from the US. 4. Israel and proxies: US: difficulty in restraining Israel, no commitment to protecting Iran. Iran: the US must restrain Israel and cease attacks. A comprehensive peace is unlikely in the short term; a protracted process involving a ceasefire and minor concessions is more probable. A comprehensive agreement is almost impossible, and the risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains ever-present.