Gu Jingci: The US-Iran negotiations are not an outcome, but a process, especially for the crypto community! (Part 1)

The first round of US-Iran talks on January 11-12 failed. Cryptocurrency markets rose before the talks, but fell sharply after the failure. However, with the second round of talks imminent, the market rebounded again, breaking recent daily highs, and is currently consolidating at high levels. This was accompanied by a significant rally due to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. First, we need to understand one logic: this is a classic example of a triple reversal—a combination of expectation gap, speculation on expectations, selling the facts, and a precise blockade. The key truth is that the US did not block global oil routes, only Iranian ports. The purpose of the blockade is to pressure Iran into making concessions, and the market believes that Iran's oil revenue will not be severely constrained for long and that negotiations and compromises will soon resume. Secondly, we need to understand another logic: negotiations are not the result, but a process, and this process will be infinitely amplified, with many more rounds of negotiations expected until the market becomes indifferent to them. Why? Because historically, US foreign wars have rarely been resolved through a single negotiation, but rather through multiple rounds of negotiations, a result of fighting and negotiating simultaneously. For example, the Korean War involved over 890 rounds of negotiations, the Vietnam War over 170, and subsequent conflicts like the Gulf War and the Afghan War didn't yield results in just one or two rounds of talks. Even the ongoing global conflict between Russia and Ukraine has involved at least ten rounds of negotiations. So do you really expect the US and Iran to reach a settlement in just one or two rounds of talks?