According to monitoring by Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 30th, as predicted on Polymarket, has dropped to 36%, a decrease of 43% this month. This probability peaked at over 75% in early March before declining sharply. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket predicts the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran before April 30 has dropped to 36%.
2026-03-16 14:13:08
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