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The probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15th on Polymarket has dropped to 25%.

2026-03-03 00:45:11
Shareshare
According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15th once rose to 64%, before falling back to 25%, with trading volume exceeding $800,000. Earlier reports indicated that Trump stated this morning that the war against Iran is expected to last four to five weeks, but could potentially longer.
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