Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket traders have reduced their bets on regime change in Iran. According to the cryptocurrency prediction market's data, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before March 31st currently remains above 20%, lower than the approximately 40% probability when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on Saturday. Currently, contracts for the regime's collapse have a trading volume exceeding $14 million. Furthermore, other contracts with later expiration dates show a 42% probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before June 30th and a 50% probability before the end of the year, with trading volumes of $5 million and $7 million respectively. Recently, Polymarket and its rival Kalshi have been embroiled in controversy over betting activities related to US attacks on Iran and the downfall of Ayatollah Khamenei. (WSJ)
WSJ: Polymarket bettors expect the Iranian regime will not collapse quickly.
2026-03-02 12:32:16
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