Bitwise: Support for the Clarity Act is wavering, and the crypto industry faces a critical crossroads.

According to a recent blog post by Bitwise, a crypto asset management company, the crypto industry is facing a critical juncture as the Clarity Act for Digital Asset Markets stalls in Congress. The short-term trend may shift from a speculative bull market to a more challenging "results-driven" phase. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, pointed out that the Clarity Act is crucial for solidifying the current relatively favorable crypto regulatory environment into a long-term legal framework. Without clear federal legislation, the crypto industry will remain exposed to the risk of future government policy shifts. Market expectations for the bill's passage have cooled significantly recently, with the probability on Polymarket falling from approximately 80% at the beginning of the year to around 50%. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has also publicly stated that he has withdrawn his support for the bill because the current draft could harm consumers and stifle competition. Hougan believes that if legislation continues to stall, the crypto industry may need to emulate disruptive companies like Uber and Airbnb, which grew in a regulatory gray area, and make stablecoins and tokenized assets an "indispensable" infrastructure of the US economy within the next three years. If successful, regulators will eventually be forced to follow suit; if large-scale implementation fails, future political changes could severely impact the industry. In terms of market impact, Bitwise predicts two possible paths: if the CLARITY bill passes in a viable version, the market may quickly factor in the anticipated expansion of blockchain finance, driving a significant price increase; conversely, if legislation fails, the market may enter a wait-and-see period, with valuations suppressed by regulatory uncertainty, and returns more dependent on real-world application implementation. Wall Street firm Benchmark also points out that legislative setbacks will delay, rather than end, the maturation process of the crypto industry. The US market may remain below its potential for some time, with funds favoring Bitcoin-related exposure, robust balance sheets, and cash flow infrastructure, while remaining cautious about regulatory-sensitive areas such as exchanges, DeFi, and altcoins. (CoinDesk)